Aso volcano: Estimating the probabilistic likelihood of a future Aso4-scale eruption from stochastic uncertainty analysis of volcanological evidence using importance sampling

Aspinall, Willy; Sparks, R. S. J.; Connor, Charles B.; Hill, Brittain E.; Costa, Antonio; Rougier, Jonathan; Inakura, Hirohito; Mahony, Sue

doi:10.1201/9781003293590-11

Cited by 2 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…In contrast, the conditional incursion probabilities based on the total outflow PDCs of the eruption are significantly higher, i.e., 46 %-100 % with 90 % confidence, depending on the marker site. Note that Table 3 also shows the results based on the volume estimates of Aspinall et al (2021), which are lower than those based on Takarada and Hoshizumi (2020) but still significant, i.e., 49 %-87 % instead of 66 %-96 % for TS1.…”

Section: Pdc Invasion Probability At Marker Sites Based Onmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…Nevertheless, the volume of magma erupted in Aso-4 and the uncertainty in volume estimates remain open questions. Aspinall et al (2021) undertook a preliminary quantification of this uncertainty by combining several different volume estimates of PDC and fallout deposits of Aso-4, through a Bayesian belief network approach. They defined composite volumes, determined by weighted combinations of different estimates of the various products, including those from Takarada and Hoshizumi (2020), and hypothesized a lower bulk volume for the ash fall deposit and therefore a smaller total magnitude with 90 % confidence (i.e., M 7.9-8.2).…”

Section: The Aso-4 Eruption and Its Productsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recently, Aspinall et al (2021), implementing a comprehensive stochastic uncertainty analysis, estimated the probability in the next 100 years of an eruption from the Aso volcano on the same scale as Aso-4. They set up a Bayesian belief network informed by multiple strands of evidence from volcanology, petrology, geochemistry and geophysics, together with reviews of published data, models, and inputs from expert elicitation.…”

Section: Probability Of Occurrence Of Large-scale Events In Japanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1). It was responsible for the emission of about several hundred km 3 dense rock equivalent (DRE) (Takarada and Hoshizumi, 2020;Aspinall et al, 2021;Rougier et al, 2022), and thus could be classed an M 8 "super-eruption", or very close to that scale. The Aso caldera is located in the densely populated Kyushu Island (∼ 12.7 million people; October 2021), the volcano is currently active and poses significant challenges for risk mitigation (Tajima et al, 2017;Cigolini et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso Caldera (Japan)

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Aspinall

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Abstract. We describe a method for calculating the probability that a distal geographic location is impacted by a pyroclastic density current (PDC) of a given size, considering the key related uncertainties. Specifically, we evaluate the minimum volume and mass of a PDC generated at the Aso caldera (Japan) that might affect each of three distal infrastructure (target) sites, with model input parameter uncertainties derived from expert judgement. The three target sites are all located 130–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions and thus, for each, we test the different topographic shielding effects. To inform our probabilistic analysis, we apply alternative kinetic energy assessment approaches, i.e. rock avalanche and density current dynamics. In the latter formulation, the minimum mass needed to reach the targets ranges between median values ~283×1012 kg and ~465×1012 kg (M7.5–7.7), depending on the site. Rock avalanche dynamics modelling indicates ~3-times greater mass would be required to reach the target sites with 50 % probability, while the hypothetical scenario of a relatively dilute distal ash-cloud would require ~3-times less mass. We compare our results with the two largest recorded Aso eruptions, showing that a catastrophic eruption, similar to Aso-4, ≈M8, would present a high conditional probability of PDCs reaching the target sites, i.e. 32 %–96 %, in the density current formulation and contingent on uncertainty in the erupted mass and on target site direction. This said, for Aso the current occurrence probability of such a colossal initiating eruption has been estimated <10-8 in the next 100 years.

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Section: Pdc Invasion Probability At Marker Sites Based Onmentioning

confidence: 66%

Section: The Aso-4 Eruption and Its Productsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Probability Of Occurrence Of Large-scale Events In Japanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso Caldera (Japan)

Bevilacqua

Aravena

Aspinall

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)

Bevilacqua

Aravena

Aspinall

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. We describe a method for calculating the probability that a distal geographic location is impacted by a pyroclastic density current (PDC) of a given size, considering the key related uncertainties. Specifically, we evaluate the minimum volume and mass of a PDC generated at the Aso caldera (Japan) that might affect each of five distal infrastructure (marker) sites, with model input parameter uncertainties derived from expert judgment. The 5 marker sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera; as these lie in well-separated directions, we can test the effects of the different topographic shielding effects in each case. To inform our probabilistic analysis, we apply alternative kinetic energy assessment approaches, i.e., rock avalanche and density current dynamics. In the latter formulation, the minimum mass needed to reach the markers ranges between median values of ∼153×1012 and ∼465×1012 kg (M 7.2–7.7), depending on the site. Rock avalanche dynamics modeling indicates that a ∼3-times greater mass would be required to reach the marker sites with 50 % probability, while the hypothetical scenario of a relatively dilute distal ash cloud would require ∼3-times less mass. We compare our results with the largest recorded Aso eruption, showing that a catastrophic eruption, similar to Aso-4, ≈ M8, would present a significant conditional probability of PDCs reaching the marker sites, in the density current formulation and contingent on uncertainty in the erupted mass and on marker site direction.

show abstract

Aso volcano: Estimating the probabilistic likelihood of a future Aso4-scale eruption from stochastic uncertainty analysis of volcanological evidence using importance sampling

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso Caldera (Japan)

Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso Caldera (Japan)

Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)

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