Assessing agricultural land-use change in the Midlands region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: application of mixed multinomial logit

Abstract

On-farm tree cultivation is considered an important strategy to mitigate detrimental environmental impacts of agricultural land-use change (ALUC). In South Africa, however, little is known about farm-level incentives and constraints that govern ALUC decisions among small-scale farmers. To address this knowledge gap, this study employs a mixed multinomial logit model by using a combination of revealed and stated preference data. After correcting for endogeneity, the estimated results show that decisions about ALUC are rationally derived and driven by clear but heterogeneous preferences and trade-offs between crop productivity, food security and labour saving. The results further show that the decision to plant sugarcane is constrained by landholding, whilst farmland afforestation is negatively influenced by household size. Decisions to convert land use are also driven by the behaviour of peer groups and agro-ecological conditions. Based on these findings, important policy implications for sustainable land use are outlined.

Analysis of Land Use/Cover Changes and Driving Forces in a Typical Subtropical Region of South Africa

“…The area of constructed land significantly grew, and the areas of water and unused land fluctuated. 3 Socioeconomic factors had a greater impact on LULCC than natural factors. Socioeconomic factors, mainly population growth, economic development, and urban expansion, dramatically increased the demand for farmland and constructed land, accelerating the transition of various land classes toward constructed land and farmland, thereby directly or indirectly affecting regional LULCC.…”

“…Additionally, uncontrolled deforestation has resulted in a decrease in forest area and quality. Persistent and unsustainable changes in land not only exacerbate soil erosion and habitat destruction but also diminish the capacity for carbon sequestration both aboveground and underground [3]. Mpumalanga is home to one of Africa's largest wildlife reserves, Kruger National Park.…”

The Influence of Discounting Ecosystem Services in Robust Multi-Objective Optimization – an Application to a Forestry-Avocado Land-Use Portfolio

“…Our study simulates land-use management in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In recent years, forestry plantations in this area have been increasingly converted to agricultural land uses, which are seen as more profitable (Hitayezu et al, 2016). Whereas agriculture with cash crops promises high monetary returns, forestry provides longlived wood products, which can be of high interest for long-term carbon sequestration.…”

“…However, given the potentially diverse circumstances and backgrounds of different decisionmakers, including several uncertainty profiles for different social groups might be useful. For example, women in developing countries, who often control food production on small-scale farms, tend to be more uncertainty-averse (Hitayezu et al, 2016;Villamor et al, 2014). Moreover, farm size is linked to available investment capacity, which along with demographic variables like educational attainment, influences the uncertainty preferences of the owners (Hitayezu et al, 2016;Reyes et al, 2021).…”

“…For example, women in developing countries, who often control food production on small-scale farms, tend to be more uncertainty-averse (Hitayezu et al, 2016;Villamor et al, 2014). Moreover, farm size is linked to available investment capacity, which along with demographic variables like educational attainment, influences the uncertainty preferences of the owners (Hitayezu et al, 2016;Reyes et al, 2021). By introducing several levels of uncertainty aversion, we represent different hypothetical groups of decision makers.…”