Assessing and Improving the Accuracy of Energy Analysis for Residential Buildings

Predicted Versus Actual Savings for a Low-Rise Multifamily Retrofit in Boulder, Colorado

“…(Arena and Vijaykumar 2012;LBNL 2012). Pre-retrofit predictions from that study were found to be significantly higher than actual energy use, supporting Polly et al (2011). The major findings from that study included.…”

“…BEopt was one component of the BA Program that added retrofits into its repertoire and has been continually improved since then. Polly et al (2011) propose a method for improving the accuracy of residential energy analysis methods. A key step in this process involves the comparison of predicted versus metered energy use and savings.…”

“…Performing an in-depth energy analysis to determine the most cost-effective improvements is essential to ensure optimal return on investment for property owners. However, multiple studies confirm that analysis methods tend to overpredict energy use in poorly insulated, leaky homes and thus, the savings associated with improving those homes (Polly et al 2011). …”

“…Analyzing the accuracy of modeling software for these types of buildings is essential to ensure that consultants, property owners, and efficiency program administrators are suggesting and making the most efficient and costeffective energy improvements. Polly et al (2011) propose a method for improving the accuracy of residential energy analysis methods. A key step in that process involves the comparison of predicted versus metered energy use and savings.…”

Technical Barriers, Gaps, and Opportunities Related to Home Energy Upgrade Market Delivery

“…There are significant uncertainties in the energy use and energy saving predictions estimated by software tools, caused by the inputs collected at the energy assessment and the algorithms used in the tools. Particularly in inefficient existing homes, energy use predictions tend to be higher, causing the prospective energy savings from a home energy upgrade to be over-predicted (Polly et al 2011). Investors may be reluctant to invest in the home energy upgrade industry when uncertainties are present.…”