Assessing and predicting the local performance of spring wheat varieties

Öfversten, Jukka; Jauhiainen, Lauri; Nikander, Hannele; Salo, Yrjö

doi:10.1017/s0021859602002642

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Historically, crop varieties have been bred to be stable under certain ‘average’ conditions, with the variety tests lasting usually for 10–15 years before a variety can be considered stable enough for commercial release for a particular climatic zone (Kangas et al 2009 ). While plant breeding has succeeded in continuously producing new, more adaptive and higher yielding crop cultivars (Peltonen-Sainio et al 2009 b ), varieties producing extremely high yields in exceptionally good conditions may be lost in the process, as the variety tests aim to find varieties that perform well on average, not just in certain years favouring an individual variety (Öfversten et al 2002 ). Expectations for climate change derived improvement of crop production potential in Finland (Carter et al 1996 ; Peltonen-Sainio et al 2009 a ) emphasize the need for higher-yielding varieties with a longer growing time, especially as the climatic conditions in the future may change in favour of them.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of barley varieties to weather in Finland

et al. 2011

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SUMMARYGlobal climate change is predicted to shift seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns. An increasing frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and prolonged droughts is predicted, but there are high levels of uncertainty about the nature of local changes. Crop adaptation will be important in reducing potential damage to agriculture. Crop diversity may enhance resilience to climate variability and changes that are difficult to predict. Therefore, there has to be sufficient diversity within the set of available cultivars in response to weather parameters critical for yield formation. To determine the scale of such ‘weather response diversity’ within barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), an important crop in northern conditions, the yield responses of a wide range of modern and historical varieties were analysed according to a well-defined set of critical agro-meteorological variables. The Finnish long-term dataset of MTT Official Variety Trials was used together with historical weather records of the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The foci of the analysis were firstly to describe the general response of barley to different weather conditions and secondly to reveal the diversity among varieties in the sensitivity to each weather variable. It was established that barley yields were frequently reduced by drought or excessive rain early in the season, by high temperatures at around heading, and by accelerated temperature sum accumulation rates during periods 2 weeks before heading and between heading and yellow ripeness. Low temperatures early in the season increased yields, but frost during the first 4 weeks after sowing had no effect. After canopy establishment, higher precipitation on average resulted in higher yields. In a cultivar-specific analysis, it was found that there were differences in responses to all but three of the studied climatic variables: waterlogging and drought early in the season and temperature sum accumulation rate before heading. The results suggest that low temperatures early in the season, delayed sowing, rain 3–7 weeks after sowing, a temperature change 3–4 weeks after sowing, a high temperature sum accumulation rate from heading to yellow ripeness and high temperatures (⩾25°C) at around heading could mostly be addressed by exploiting the traits found in the range of varieties included in the present study. However, new technology and novel genetic material are needed to enable crops to withstand periods of excessive rain or drought early in the season and to enhance performance under increased temperature sum accumulation rates prior to heading.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of barley varieties to weather in Finland

et al. 2011

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“…Twelve cultivars were selected for analysis : four potential cultivars accepted to the national list of cultivars for Finland during 2001-06 (Apollo, Pouta, Riikka and SW Petita), and the eight most important cultivars grown in Finland during 1990-2005 (Harmoni, Hohto, Kelta, Kova, Kulta, SW Rebus, Tuli andValo). Each trial contained only two to eight cultivars and therefore a mixed linear model with factorial error structure (Piepho 1997;Ö fversten et al 2002) was used to examine the stability instead of the widely used Finlay & Wilkinson (1963) method. Stability parameters estimated by the previous method are later termed as common stability parameters.…”

Section: Yield Stability Of Newly Introduced Cultivarsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Declining rapeseed yields in Finland: how, why and what next?

2007

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SUMMARYAverage seed yields per hectare of Brassica oilseed crops in Finland, mainly summer turnip rape (Brassica rapa L. var. oleifera subvar. annua), which covers 0·93–0·99 of the total oil crop cultivation area depending on year, have fallen dramatically during the last 15 years. This downward trend is contrary to those in other temperate regions, where rapeseed yields have increased or levelled off after reaching a relatively high level. The 5-year moving averages for Finland show that seed yield started to diminish gradually after reaching its highest level of over 1700 kg/ha in the early 1990s. By 2005 it had fallen to 1270 kg/ha. The present study evaluated the possible reasons for the recorded collapse in Finnish turnip rape yields. All the statistical analyses were based on large, previously produced, datasets from multi-location Agrifood Research Finland (MTT) Official Variety Tests, Finnish Food Safety Authority (EVIRA) Seed Testing datasets and the Information Centre of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry in Finland (TIKE) national production datasets. Results from MTT trials indicated that the latest turnip rape cultivars were more sensitive to elevated temperatures at late seed set and during seed fill – and such temperatures often occurred during the years of greatest yield reduction. When taking into account how commonly sown these cultivars were at national level during the last 10 years, increased sensitivity contributed to up to two thirds of the recorded yield reduction. Even though the growing area of turnip rape has slightly exceeded 100 000 ha, after long being 60 000–70 000 ha, by extending cultivation to more northern areas of Finland, such changes do not explain the yield collapse according to data from TIKE. Furthermore, lower national yields do not stem from larger, but rather are associated with narrower within year variation in seed yield. Additional empirical work is needed to understand the causes of increased temperature sensitivity in modern cultivars (e.g. possible linkage to drought, diseases and/or drastically increased seed energy content). Furthermore, a national survey is essential for a thorough and up-to-date picture of the prevalence of pests and diseases in turnip rape and their contribution to reduced yields.

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“…This is a latent variable that combines the effects of all external conditions associated to that environment. A similar approach has been used in previous studies (Piepho 1997 ;Ö fversten et al 2002). The use of the proposed latent variable is justified, because there is no single index available containing sufficient information of the environment as a measurable entity (Eberhart & Russell 1966).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fortunately, recent statistical theory and software has been sufficiently developed to allow efficient analysis of non-normal data. This permitted a more thorough analysis of existing data of lodging of barley varieties using a logistic model otherwise analogous to that used by Piepho (1997) andÖ fversten et al (2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An evaluation of differential susceptibility of barley varieties to lodging under varying environmental conditions

2006

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Information on the variation in susceptibility to lodging between barley varieties under different environments can be used for local prediction. It can also be used to identify varieties that are robust to environmental variation. Efficient methods to obtain analogous information on the local yielding capacity of crop varieties have recently been established. The present paper extends the use of these methods for the analysis of dichotomously measured performance characteristics, the susceptibility to lodging, in particular. The procedures examined were based on generalized linear models in which the expected conditional mean of the susceptibility to lodging was used as an explanatory variable to express the environmental effects of a given environment. Through the use of logistic transformation the approach extends previous methods developed for continuous response variables to binary response variables. Models were subsequently used to obtain measures of susceptibility to lodging of each barley variety in terms of environmental variation. While the emphasis is restricted to lodging, similar methods can also be applied to other performance characteristics.

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Assessing and predicting the local performance of spring wheat varieties

Cited by 7 publications

References 6 publications

Sensitivity of barley varieties to weather in Finland

Sensitivity of barley varieties to weather in Finland

Declining rapeseed yields in Finland: how, why and what next?

An evaluation of differential susceptibility of barley varieties to lodging under varying environmental conditions

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