Assessing Cardiovascular Risk in Geriatric Patients Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Abstract

Introduction: Age is a major risk factor that affects the likelihood of developing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The anticipated 10-year ASCVD risk for nearly all individuals aged 70 years and older surpasses conventional risk thresholds. When considering treatment for risk factors, it is important to take into account ASCVD risk modifiers, such as malnutrition, polypharmacy, and comorbidities. Objectives: The aim of this study was to estimate ASCVD risk in apparently healthy (without established ASCVD) elderly persons. We also evaluated several biochemical and clinical indicators to better characterize the studied population. Patients and methods: A total of 253 elderly individuals aged 70 years and older, who were apparently healthy and did not have established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), were enrolled in the study. The Systemic Coronary Risk Estimation 2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) model was utilized to assess their 10-year risk of developing ASCVD. Results: Among the 253 participants, 41 (16.2%) were classified as high risk, while 212 (83.8%) were categorized as very high risk. No individuals had a low ASCVD risk (defined as less than 7.5%). The median 10-year risk of developing ASCVD for the study group was 23% (ranging from 17% to 32%). The number of individuals identified as very high risk increased significantly with age, with nearly all participants aged 75 years and older being considered very high risk. An age of 75 years or older is associated with a very high risk for ASCVD, supported by a C-statistic of 0.92, which reflects a positive predictive value (PPV) of 99% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 52% (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Elderly individuals without established ASCVD constitute a varied group. The majority were identified as being at very high risk for ASCVD. Age and hypertension were the primary factors contributing to this risk. Furthermore, modifiers of ASCVD risk, including malnutrition, polypharmacy, and multimorbidity, were commonly observed.