Assessing changes in intra- and inter-annual precipitation variability using advanced statistical inference techniques

Abstract

Aiming to find statistically significant changes on the usual monthly weather conditions in Alentejo, Portugal, in the past 40 years, time series of precipitation from a grid of locations in Alentejo were studied using an unconventional approach. The time series were divided into 4 decades and disposed in contingency tables with two factors, Year and Month. Then, log-linear models were fitted to those tables. The model deviances for Year and Month represent the weight of each factor in explaning precipitation varibility and Year:Month deviance is an estimate of the lack of independence between both factors, representing changes in intra-annual precipitation variability. The set of all the models deviances, per decade and location, were analysed using ANOVA techniques, first to compare the four decades, then to perform a crossed comparison between decades and between four pre-defined zones. Results indicate significant differences between the oldest and recent decades in terms of intra-annual precipitation variability, which could be interpreted as a trend towards softening the differences in precipitation between the wet months of the year. Furthermore, two homogeneous sub-regions could be defined in Alentejo, a large interior region and a smaller one close to the Atlantic Ocean.