Assessing Changes in the Effect of Divorce Rates on Homicide Rates Across Large U.S. Cities, 1960-2000: Revisiting the Chicago School

Abstract

Researchers commonly include a measure of the level of divorce among the standard covariates in macro-level studies of homicide, justifying this practice with reference to social disorganization theory. We review the underlying logic for a divorce/homicide relationship, distinguishing between a “cultural/normative conflict” variant advanced by the classical Chicago School theorists and a “structural/control” variant associated with the neosocial disorganization perspective. We suggest that the cultural/normative conflict variant implies that the effects of divorce will become attenuated over time, whereas the structural/control variant implies stability in effects. We then assess the degree to which the effects of levels of divorce on homicide rates have changed with panel data for a sample of large U.S. cities during the period 1960-2000.The results of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) analyses reveal considerable stability in the effects of a measure of divorce on homicide rates, especially if the divorce measure is combined with a “sibling” measure of family disorganization—the percentage of children not living with two parents. Our analyses suggest that the commonly observed positive effect of measures of divorce on homicide rates over recent decades is most plausibly interpreted with reference to the “structural/control” arguments associated with the neosocial disorganization perspective.

Correlates of Intimate Partner Homicide in the Rural United States: Findings From a National Sample of Rural Counties, 2009–2016

“…Second, community economic need, as operationalized by the receipt of public assistance, requires further study to better understand how poverty associates with IPH. Third, divorce rate, rather than operating as a measure of gender equality, seems to be operating as it was classically conceived in social disorganization theory as a disorganizing factor that increased violence in neighborhoods (Beaulieu & Messner, 2010; Sampson & Groves, 1989). Research has indicated that despite changes in social norms, divorce has remained a positive correlate of homicide overall (Beaulieu & Messner, 2010).…”

“…There was no missingness in the county-level variables. Gender equality variables were (a) the ratio of the proportion of women to the proportion of men between the ages of 20 and 64 in the labor force, (b) the ratio of the proportion of women to the proportion of men older than 25 with at least 4 years of postsecondary education, and (c) the divorce rate of persons above 15 (Beaulieu & Messner, 2010; Dugan et al, 2003; U.S. Census Bureau, 2018b, 2018c, 2018e).…”

“…Third, divorce rate, rather than operating as a measure of gender equality, seems to be operating as it was classically conceived in social disorganization theory as a disorganizing factor that increased violence in neighborhoods (Beaulieu & Messner, 2010;Sampson & Groves, 1989). Research has indicated that despite changes in social norms, divorce has remained a positive correlate of homicide overall (Beaulieu & Messner, 2010). The finding that divorce rate was associated with non-IPH in the all rural samples seems to support divorce as a disorganizing principle, although more research is needed on divorce rate's effect on crime in the rural space to better understand the practice and policy implications of this finding.…”

Monitoring Volatile Homicide Trends Across U.S. Cities

“…Such ranges suggest that even percent changes of over 100% for large polities are not uncommon and should not per se be considered unexpected simply by chance. Because of this year-to-year variability researchers often aggregate homicide rates over multiple year spans and analyze those (see Beaulieu & Messner, 2010, for one example).…”

Street Gangs and Aggregate Homicides

“…Divorce also has been conceptualized as a factor that increases violence risks (Beaulieu & Messener, 2010). Divorce is a disruption in family stability and viewed as a source of weakened social ties.…”