Assessing China's Path to Carbon Neutrality: Analyzing Historical and Projected Electricity-Related Carbon Emissions in the Context of the Dual Carbon Plan

Abstract

Carbon emissions have become a hot topic in the energy sector. China has proposed the "Dual Carbon Plan," aiming to peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, whereby carbon emissions will be completely offset or absorbed, resulting in a net zero or negative carbon emission balance. However, China's heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation, coupled with issues of overcapacity and relatively backward technology, not only leads to significant carbon emissions but also poses challenges for a rapid transition to clean energy. This paper analyses historical data on China's total carbon emissions and carbon emissions from electricity generation. Additionally, it predicts future electricity-related carbon emissions based on policy and technological scenarios proposed by existing scholars, discussing the feasibility of achieving the goals set forth in the Dual Carbon Plan.