Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate

Turkington, Thea; Remaître, Alexandre; Ettema, J.; Hussin, Haydar; Westen, C.J. van

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1657-6

Cited by 65 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Global warming as a result of climate change is a quantifiable phenomenon (Shi et al, 2010;Gariano, et al, 2016;Turkington, et al, 2016), with a demonstrable increase in global temperatures by ~0.57°C over the last century (Fig. 1).…”

Section: Global Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Global warming resulting from climate change has altered the occurrence frequency and intensity of many natural geohazards, including landslides, debris flows and earthquakes (Calbó et al, 2010;Coe and Godt., 2012;Seneviratne et al, 2012;Gariano and Guzzetti., 2016;Heuvel, et al, 2016;Turkington, et al, 2016;Yongming Lin, et al, 2017). As an example of the mechanism for this, research has shown that 5%-10% of global permafrost will melt if global temperatures 25 rise by 2°C, causing a significant increase in landslides and mudslides (Dong and Jia., 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global warming causes sinkhole collapse – Case study in Florida, USA

Meng

Liu

2018

Preprint

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Abstract. The occurrence frequency and intensity of many natural geohazards, such as landslides, debris flows and earthquakes, have increased in response to global warming. However, the effects of such on development and spread of sinkholes has been largely overlooked. Most research shows that water pumping and related drawdown is the most important 10 factor in sinkhole development, but in this paper evidence is presented which highlights the role played by global warming in causing sinkholes. The state of Florida, USA is used as a case study in which the role of global warming is evident, based on correlation analysis between sinkhole collapse and peak drought periods. Three distinct drought and sinkhole collapse phases are evident between 1965 and 2006, along with eight peak periods of sinkhole collapse that lag slightly behind eight peak drought periods. A prediction equation is derived according to curve fitting and a correlation coefficient of 0.999 is 15 determined. The results of this study confirm that global warming related to climate change has led to an increase in sinkhole collapse events in Florida over the past 50 years, which is of significance for studying the occurrence and prediction of other sinkhole collapse events and global warming on an international scale.

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Section: Global Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global warming causes sinkhole collapse – Case study in Florida, USA

Meng

Liu

2018

Preprint

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“…However, the distribution of both precipitation stations and meteorological radars is quite sparse and uneven in most mountainous regions (Wang, Chen, & Yang, 2019). This is due to their coarse resolution, insufficient number of observations, poor downscaling methods, and delayed availability (Sun et al, 2018;Turkington et al, 2016). This is due to their coarse resolution, insufficient number of observations, poor downscaling methods, and delayed availability (Sun et al, 2018;Turkington et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meanwhile, most gridded precipitation data sets from climate model outputs, gauge-based precipitation, and reanalysis products, are not ideally suited for research and applications related to rainfalltriggered geological hazards. This is due to their coarse resolution, insufficient number of observations, poor downscaling methods, and delayed availability (Sun et al, 2018;Turkington et al, 2016). However, satellitebased precipitation has become a widely used approach to provide cost-effective precipitation estimates (Xu et al, 2019), which is free from most of those limitations (Prakash et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive Evaluation of Satellite‐Based Precipitation at Sub‐Daily Time Scales Over a High‐Profile Watershed with Complex Terrain

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2019

Earth and Space Science

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In this study, a preliminary quantitative evaluation of global precipitation measurement (GPM) mission precipitation products at sub-daily time scales was performed in a typical and small watershed with complex terrain in southwestern China. The world heritage Jiuzhaigou Valley, which has been affected by many rainfall-triggered debris-flow disasters after the Ms 7.0 earthquake on 8 August 2017, was selected as the study area. The "early", "late" and "final" half-hourly GPM precipitations and hourly observations by four rainfall stations were used, and various indicators (general statistical indices, classification indicators, and a joint probability distribution function) were adopted as metrics to evaluate the GPM rainfall. Results indicated that the early and late hourly products showed a medium degree of correlation with ground observations, while the final hourly product showed better performances and may be used for research-level applications in the study area. GPM products could approximately reproduce the diurnal cycles of observed precipitation whereas the relationship between peak rainfall and duration spell was in good agreement with ground observations. The 1-hour final product was unable to significantly reduce the rate of missing report for rain although it was calibrated by global monthly data. An event-based evaluation showed that the GPM performed well for the cumulative rainfall. The assessment results support the development of early-warning models for rainfall-triggered geological disasters, provide useful implications on the improvement of rainfall retrieval algorithm in complex mountainous areas, and may be used as reference for scientific studies in poorly sampled regions with similar geographical conditions as the Jiuzhaigou Valley.

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“…The vast majority of these applications rely exclusively on the well-established concept of intensity-duration thresholds (e.g. Aleotti 2004, Guzzetti et al, 2007 and references therein), or apply other probabilistic assessments of rainfall characteristics (Berti et al, 2012;Braun and Kaitna, 2016;Turkington et al, 2016;van den Heuvel et al, 2016). Either approaches work under the implicit conjecture that rainfall is the only hydrological factor 30 controlling debris flow initiation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The temporally varying roles of rainfall, snowmelt and soil moisture for debris flow initiation in a snow dominated system: the compound trigger concept

Mostbauer

Kaitna

Prenner

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Debris flows represent a severe hazard in mountain regions. Though significant effort has been made to predict such events, the trigger conditions as well as the hydrologic disposition of a watershed at the time of debris flow occurrence are not well understood. Traditional intensity-duration threshold techniques to establish trigger conditions generally do not 10 account for distinct influences of rainfall, snowmelt, and antecedent moisture. To improve our knowledge on the connection between debris flow initiation and the hydrologic system and to overcome the above limitations, this study explores the use of a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model, linking different system variables such as soil moisture, snowmelt, or runoff with documented debris flow events in the inner Pitztal watershed, western Austria. The model was run on a daily basis between 1953 and 2012. Analyzing a range of modelled system state and flux variables at days on which debris flows 15 occurred, three distinct dominant trigger mechanisms could be clearly identified. While the results suggest that for 68% (17 out of 25) of the observed debris flow events during the study period high-intensity rainfall was the dominant trigger, snowmelt was identified as dominant trigger for 24% (6 out of 25) of the observed debris flow events. In addition, 8% (2 out of 25) of the debris flow events could be attributed to the combined effects of low-intensity, long-lasting rainfall and transient storage of this water, causing elevated antecedent soil moisture conditions. The results also suggest a relatively 20 clear temporal separation between the distinct trigger mechanisms, with high-intensity rainfall as trigger being limited to mid-and late summer. The dominant trigger in late spring/early summer is snowmelt. Based on the discrimination between different modelled system states and fluxes and more specifically, their temporally varying importance relative to each other, rather than their absolute values, this exploratory study demonstrates that already the use of a relatively simple hydrological model can prove useful to gain some more insight into the importance of distinct debris flow trigger mechanisms in a 25 compound trigger concept, highlighting in particular the relevance of snowmelt contributions and the switch between mechanisms in early-to mid-summer in snow dominated systems.

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Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate

Cited by 65 publications

References 38 publications

Global warming causes sinkhole collapse – Case study in Florida, USA

Global warming causes sinkhole collapse – Case study in Florida, USA

Comprehensive Evaluation of Satellite‐Based Precipitation at Sub‐Daily Time Scales Over a High‐Profile Watershed with Complex Terrain

The temporally varying roles of rainfall, snowmelt and soil moisture for debris flow initiation in a snow dominated system: the compound trigger concept

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