Assessing decadal to centennial scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends

Abstract

Abstract. There are indications that the reference climatology underlying meteorological drought has shown non-stationarity at seasonal, decadal, and centennial time scales, impacting the interpretation of normalized drought indices and potentially producing serious ecological, economic, and social consequences. Analyzing these trends in the meteorological drought climatology beyond the 100-year observation period contributes to a better understanding of the non-stationary changes, ultimately determining whether they are within the range of natural variability or outside this range. To accomplish this, our study introduces a novel approach to incorporate unevenly scaled tree-ring proxy data (NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by first temporal downscaling the proxy data to produce a regular time series, and then modeling climate non-stationarity while simultaneously correcting model induced bias. This new modeling approach was applied to 14 sites across the continental United States using the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as a basis. Findings showed locations which have experienced recent rapid shifts towards drier or wetter conditions during the instrumental period compared to the past 1000 years, with drying trends generally in the west and wetting trends in the east. This study also found that seasonal shifts have occurred in some regions recently, with seasonality changes most notable for southern gauges. We expect that our new approach provides a foundation for incorporating various datasets to examine non-stationary variability in long-term precipitation climatology and to confirm the spatial patterns noted here in greater detail.

Centennial-scale intensification of wet and dry extremes in North America

“…The approach used here, integrating datasets from the past through the future, relies on a novel use of hierarchical spline models (Sung et al, 2022) to provide a comprehensive view of modern and projected drought and pluvial extremes in the context of centuries of pre-industrial climate.…”

“…Hence, this study aims to address: (1) whether future projections of wet and dry precipitation extremes are significantly different from the past 1000 years, and (2) how trends during the instrumental period (1900 -2020CE) fit into the longer pattern of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. This is accomplished through a novel non-linear spline model Sung et al, 2022) which simultaneously corrects data-induced bias to generate a single, common model of century-scale shifts in the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) (Heim, 2002), representing drought and pluvial extremes.…”

“…A non-stationary SPI (NSPI) approach (Sung et al, 2022) was used to simultaneously model centennial-scale trends of droughts and pluvials and to account for data-induced bias. The NSPI is similar to the the SPI by fitting probability density functions to accumulated precipitation, but allows distribution parameters to shift gradually through time (Pedersen et al, 2019;Wood, 2008).…”