Assessing External Threats to Structures Using Limited Statistical Data: An Approach Based on Data Resampling

Abstract

The paper deals with an estimation of risk to structures posed by extreme, dangerous phenomena called in brief the external threats. It is considered how to calculate risk values when a limited amount of data on actions imposed by these phenomena is available. The key methodology suggested in the paper for estimating the risk is the so‐called bootstrap resampling, known also as statistical or Efron's resampling. The paper presents a procedure allowing to apply the limited data to calculating bootstrap confidence intervals for probabilities of damage which can be caused by the actions. The application of the procedure is based on the assumption that the limited data can be expressed in the form of statistical sample which possesses the property of representativeness. It is discussed how to incorporate the confidence intervals in an expression of the risk induced by external threats. The proposed procedure can be viewed as a way of utilising limited and often very expensive data gained from experiments imitating occurrences of external threats. Findings described in this paper can be applied to design the structures for the so‐called accidental situations.

Simulation-Based Predicting the Position of Road Tank Explosions. Part I: Data and Models

“…(3) Δ A solution of the above maximisation problem requires to predict uncertain BLEVE effects and to utilise methods of structural reliability analysis for a repeated estimation of the damage probability P(D | B, Δ) for different values of Δ (see, e.g., Vaidogas, Juocevičius 2007). The determination of Δ max is beyond the scope of the present paper.…”

Exploring the Possibility to Assess and Reduce the Risk Due to Hazardous Materials Transportation by Deploying Roadside Safety Barriers

“…Such blast loading is sometimes accompanied by impact of projectiles and spread thermal radiation. A typical example of such an explosion is BLEVE (e.g., Vaidogas and Juocevičius 2007).…”

“…A solution of the above maximisation problem requires to predict uncertain BLEVE effects and to utilise methods of SRA for a repeated estimation of the damage probability P(D | B, ∆) for different values of ∆ (see, e.g., Vaidogas and Juocevičius 2007). The determination of ∆ max is beyond the scope of the present work.…”

“…At present one can only say that the estimation of P(D | E ϕ , ∆) may face two problems: scarcity of data on effects of fires and/or explosions recorded during/after past accidents and need to predict these effects and response of reservoirs to them by means of models which are not necessarily very accurate. The best way to deal with these problems is an application of methods based on the Bayesian statistical theory and widely used for QRA (Juocevičius and Vaidogas 2010;Vaidogas 2003Vaidogas , 2006aVaidogas , 2007aVaidogas , 2009Vaidogas and Juocevičius 2007, 2008a.…”

“…The tank car is used for a transportation of liquefied propane. Mechanical effects of BLEVE occur as blast and projectiles (Vaidogas and Juocevičius 2007). The present case study will consider the blast loading only whereas the protection against projectiles will be addressed in brief at the end of this section.…”