Assessing factors influencing green hydrogen conversion at Vietnam's gas turbine power plants using combined SWOT-AHP analysis method

Abstract

<p>At COP26, Vietnam committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Up to now, several strategic policies and master plans concerning energy and power development along with emission reduction have been introduced. The national power development plan for the 2021–2030 vision to 2050 (PDP8) has directed for gas-to-hydrogen fuel conversion at gas turbine power sources in the national power system when the technology is commercialized and the cost is appropriate. Therefore, gas turbine power plants (GTPPs) with a total capacity of approximately 32.4 GW by 2050, using domestic natural gas and imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), will be expected to switch to using green hydrogen (GH2) to cut greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. This study uses the SWOT analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to quantitatively analyze and examine the factors influencing the perspective of GH2 conversion at CTPPs in Vietnam. Research results show that among the four groups of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats being examined, the most influencing one is Weaknesses with the highest weight of 0.381, followed by Threats (0.343), suggesting that the GH2 conversion ambition will be facing significant challenges and difficulties. At the level of element factors in the groups, the lack of infrastructure and insufficient legal framework/specific incentive mechanisms are the biggest weaknesses, with weights of 0.362 and 0.326, respectively, while the consistent policies of the state and abundant potential of renewable energy resources, weighing 0.446 and 0.235, respectively, are Vietnam's prominent strengths. Additionally, remarkable opportunities include the effective exploitation of available renewable energy resources (0.338) and great contribution to reducing emissions (0.288), while the main challenges remain the lack of capital (0.471) and high GH2 cost (0.284). The research results clarify the typical problems of a developing country like Vietnam in the global energy transition trend toward carbon neutrality: high potential of renewable energy sources, great political determination, and ambitious goals for green growth, but significant difficulties and challenges due to the low starting point and limited technological and financial resources while energy demand is constantly increasing. Thus, some strategic solutions are proposed, including taking advantage of internal strengths to avoid/limit external threats, making the most of strengths to exploit opportunities, and minimizing weaknesses to take advantage of opportunities and to limit the threats.</p>