Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, Jae; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans‐Holger; Sferra, Fabio

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.088

Cited by 64 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Type D reference cases have recently been illustrated with the fossil energy supply scenarios developed for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1 (SSP1) narrative of 'green growth' and sustainable development (Bauer et al 2016, van Vuuren et al 2017. These scenarios are plotted in figure 1 (green square) and in the supplementary online material-section V. However, the SSP1 scenarios are also consistent with the IEA's reference case outlook, which intends to present the expected outcome from today's ongoing developments in the energy sector rather than an explicit storyline of green growth.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

Ritchie

Dowlatabadi

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case 'no policy' scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced 'dynamics as usual' of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

Ritchie

Dowlatabadi

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The regions that suffer from energy scarcity and environmental pollution, and proactively push the development of DG, are worth specific research. It remains to be seen if they made the right choices and if other regions should follow [2,5].…”

Section: Growing Trend Of Distributed Generation Projectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The discrepancy between energy consumption and production varies geographically, which can increase the difficulty of responding to the risk [2]. Besides energy scarcity, environmental and climate change pressures also call for a more efficient approach to energy use [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Life Cycle Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis of Natural Gas-Based Distributed Generation Projects in China

et al. 2017

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Abstract:In this paper, we used the life-cycle analysis (LCA) method to evaluate the energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of natural gas (NG) distributed generation (DG) projects in China. We took the China Resources Snow Breweries (CRSB) NG DG project in Sichuan province of China as a base scenario and compared its life cycle energy consumption and GHG emissions performance against five further scenarios. We found the CRSB DG project (all energy input is NG) can reduce GHG emissions by 22%, but increase energy consumption by 12% relative to the scenario, using coal combined with grid electricity as an energy input. The LCA also indicated that the CRSB project can save 24% of energy and reduce GHG emissions by 48% relative to the all-coal scenario. The studied NG-based DG project presents major GHG emissions reduction advantages over the traditional centralized energy system. Moreover, this reduction of energy consumption and GHG emissions can be expanded if the extra electricity from the DG project can be supplied to the public grid. The action of combining renewable energy into the NG DG system can also strengthen the dual merit of energy conservation and GHG emissions reduction. The marginal CO 2 abatement cost of the studied project is about 51 USD/ton CO 2 equivalent, which is relatively low. Policymakers are recommended to support NG DG technology development and application in China and globally to boost NG utilization and control GHG emissions.

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“…The resulting cumulative availability curves are plotted and the aggregate data as well as cumulative availability curves are compared across SSPs. The methodology, the data sources and the assumptions are documented in a related article (N. Bauer, J. Hilaire, R.J. Brecha, J. Edmonds, K. Jiang, E. Kriegler, H.-H. Rogner, F. Sferra, 2016) [1] under DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.088.…”

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confidence: 99%

Data on fossil fuel availability for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

et al. 2017

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The data files contain the assumptions and results for the construction of cumulative availability curves for coal, oil and gas for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The files include the maximum availability (also known as cumulative extraction cost curves) and the assumptions that are applied to construct the SSPs. The data is differentiated into twenty regions. The resulting cumulative availability curves are plotted and the aggregate data as well as cumulative availability curves are compared across SSPs. The methodology, the data sources and the assumptions are documented in a related article (N. Bauer, J. Hilaire, R.J. Brecha, J. Edmonds, K. Jiang, E. Kriegler, H.-H. Rogner, F. Sferra, 2016) [1] under DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.088.

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Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

Cited by 64 publications

References 34 publications

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

Life Cycle Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis of Natural Gas-Based Distributed Generation Projects in China

Data on fossil fuel availability for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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