Assessing Health Impacts of Pictorial Health Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs in Korea Using DYNAMO-HIA

Abstract

ObjectivesThis study aimed to predict the 10-year impacts of the introduction of pictorial warning labels (PWLs) on cigarette packaging in 2016 in Korea for adults using DYNAMO-HIA. MethodsIn total, four scenarios were constructed to better understand the potential health impacts of PWLs: two for PWLs and the other two for a hypothetical cigarette tax increase. In both policies, an optimistic and a conservative scenario were constructed. The reference scenario assumed the 2015 smoking rate would remain the same. Demographic data and epidemiological data were obtained from various sources. Differences in the predicted smoking prevalence and prevalence, incidence, and mortality from diseases were compared between the reference scenario and the four policy scenarios. ResultsIt was predicted that the optimistic PWLs scenario (PWO) would lower the smoking rate by 4.79% in males and 0.66% in females compared to the reference scenario in 2017. However, the impact on the reduction of the smoking rate was expected to diminish over time. PWO will prevent 85 238 cases of diabetes, 67 948 of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 31 526 of ischemic heart disease, 21 036 of lung cancer, and 3972 prevalent cases of oral cancer in total over the 10-year span due to the reductions in smoking prevalence. The impacts of PWO are expected to be between the impact of the optimistic and the conservative cigarette tax increase scenarios. The results were sensitive to the transition probability of smoking status. ConclusionsThe introduction of PWLs in 2016 in Korea is expected reduce smoking prevalence and disease cases for the next 10 years, but regular replacements of PWLs are needed for persistent impacts.

The association between new graphic health warning labels on tobacco products and attitudes toward smoking among south Korean adolescents: a national cross-sectional study

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The effects of health warning labels on cigarette packages on patients who apply to cardiology clinic

“…This study showed that HWLs reduce smoking in men by 4.79% and women by 0.66%. As a result of this effect, it is estimated that within ten years a reduction in the incidence of 85238 diabetes mellitus, 67948 chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, 31526 ischemic heart diseases, 21036 lung cancers, and 3972 oral cancer cases is expected [17]. In our study, 33.9% of the participants stated that they considered quitting smoking, and 40.8% of them reduced or considered reducing smoking since the start of the usage of HWLs.…”

Analysis of the legislative process related to the implementation of graphic health warning labels on tobacco products in South Korea

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