Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production and Food Security in Bangladesh

Hussain, Sk. Ghulam

doi:10.1007/978-90-481-9516-9_28

Cited by 24 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…With population growth that was predicated to increase by 25, 217, and 6 million in 2030 in Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar, respectively [6], and with the dietary improvement, total grain demand will continue to increase in the coming decades, especially in Bangladesh and India. With global warming, the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods are predicted to increase, and the rising sea level might cause inundation of the productive lands, resulting in adverse impacts on the food production in the three countries [64][65][66][67].…”

Section: Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Analysis on Food Security in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar

Chen

2018

Sustainability

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Abstract:In 2013, China proposed the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor initiatives to enhance the economic cooperation between Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. To serve the priority setting of agricultural cooperation in the initiatives, an analysis is necessary to understand the food security situation and its key influencing factors in the three countries. For this purpose, this study applied a food security index (FSI) to measure the food security level at state scale and analyze its changes in the three countries during 1990-2013. Further, a factor decomposition method was used to quantify the contribution of major factors to the FSI changes. The results showed that the food demand was generally secured in Myanmar and India during 1990-2013 but in shortage by around 10% in most years before 2008 in Bangladesh. The annual FSI values showed a rather obvious periodic variation and a slightly increasing trend during the whole period. Although the grain production in the three countries increased significantly, the FSI was not accordingly improved, as a result of the simultaneous increase of grain consumption. In Bangladesh and India, the grain production increase was mainly driven by the improvement of crop yield, while the grain consumption increase was mainly caused by the population growth. In Myanmar, the production increase was largely caused by the expansion of cropping area, and the consumption growth was mainly due to the increased grain requirement per capita. To meet the increasing food demand in the future, it is essential to improve the irrigation and drainage systems and crop management to increase the land use efficiency and crop yield. In addition, the adaptation of appropriate policy for family planning could be important to slow down the quick population growth and thus the food demand.

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Section: Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Analysis on Food Security in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar

Chen

2018

Sustainability

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“…Supplemental irrigation was essential in those low rainfall years for successful T. Aman rice production. Hussain (2011) reported increased rainfall during March through November in both 2050 and 2070 A.D. Shah et al (2013) reported changing precipitation patterns. Our findings also revealed very much fluctuating rainfall patterns.…”

Section: Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic Variability and Wet Season Rice (<i>Oryza sativa</i> L.) Production in North-West Bangladesh

et al. 2017

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Climate change is influencing rice (Oryza sativa L.) production in some agro-ecological regions of Bangladesh. The impact of seasonal climatic variability on rainfed lowland rice (transplanted aman or T. Aman) yield in north-west Bangladesh was analyzed based on historic weather data from 1971 to 2010. Wet season maximum and minimum temperatures were increasing by 0.0174 and 0.0083°C year . Combined effect of increased minimum temperature and decreased sunshine hours will govern T. Aman rice yield in future.

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“…Total wheat production was projected to increase by 19-26% across three climate scenarios by 2050 but to decline by 17-24% under the same scenarios by 2070. Hussain (2011) argued that research to screen genotypes for tolerance to environmental and climatic stress may reduce the projected loss of crop production. Hassan et al (2014), using the DSSAT crop model, assessed the effects of climate change (temperature, precipitation, and CO2) on rice yields in the drought-prone north-west of Bangladesh under historical and three 2050 climate scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meanwhile, the extent of arable land is declining; from 1983 to 2008, just over 1 million ha of arable land was lost to non-agricultural uses, representing 5% of the net cultivated area in 2008 (BBS 2014a). Yet Hussain (2011) estimates that an additional 8 million tonnes of foodgrains (rice and wheat) will need to be produced by 2030, and a further 14 million tonnes by 2050, compared to the base year , in which 28 million tonnes were produced. The land use pattern in the traditional crop growing regions averages a 204% cropping intensity, indicating that there is little opportunity to increase crop production by increasing the intensity of land use in these regions (BBS 2014b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They are also poorly served by physical infrastructure such as roads, embankments, and irrigation that might enhance their adaptive capacity. Yet this already-stressed sector is under considerable pressure to help meet the increasing food demand of a growing population Faisal and Parveen 2004;Baas and Ramasamy 2008;Hussain 2011). In addition, policymakers face a great challenge to safeguard the livelihoods of these coastal dwellers MoEF 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Sustainability of Rice-Based Cropping Systems in Coastal Bangladesh: Bio-Economic Analysis of Current and Future Climate Scenarios

Kabir¹

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Agricultural sustainability is an issue of great significance for Bangladesh, especially in the vulnerable conditions of the south-west coastal region. This is the case both currently and in light of projected climate and salinity trends in the coastal region. The research reported in this thesis aimed to assess the current and future sustainability of rice-based cropping systems in the south-west coastal region and to identify options to improve the livelihoods and food security of coastal dwellers. To achieve this aim, the research sought to evaluate the contributions of rice and other crops to the agroeconomic viability (profitability and risk) of current cropping systems; to assess the implications of projected future climate and salinity for the economic viability of alternative cropping systems; and to explore the dynamics of farm-level adaptation to changes in climate and salinity.The farm household was taken as the basic unit of analysis and conventional techniques of farm management research (partial, enterprise, whole-farm, and stochastic budgets) were used, supplemented with the results of climate and crop simulation models to project economic viability in future scenarios. Tools from rural livelihoods analysis were also applied to the study of household adaptation strategies. Two contrasting villages in Dacope Sub-district were chosen for the research.In Shaheberabad arable land was widely used for rice and non-rice cropping, while farmers in Uttar Kaminibasia practised rice/fish farming in the wet season and brackish-water shrimp farming in the dry season. Four household types were identified -large, medium, small, and landless -to capture the range of circumstances within each village. A range of quantitative and qualitative techniques were used to collect data from these villages and household types, including group interviews, key informant interviews, household case studies, and household questionnaire surveys.Rice farming was the most important livelihood activity in the wet season in both villages, providing food, cash, and employment. In the dry season, the rice fields were used for a range of non-rice crops in Shaheberabad or for brackish-water shrimp in Uttar Kaminibasia. In addition, homestead gardening, aquaculture, and livestock rearing were undertaken, more in the first village than the second. Wage employment and/or self-employment activities were also integral to the livelihoods of most households. This diversification itself contributed to sustainability.The currently-practised rice/non-rice and rice-fish/shrimp systems were economically viable given typical seasonal yields and prices. However, seasonal variability in yields and prices affected the profitability of the cropping systems. The profitability of dry-season crops in Shaheberabad was frequently affected by climatic stresses (erratic rainfall and drought) and soil salinity, due mainly to inadequate access to freshwater irrigation. Likewise, the profitability of shrimp in Uttar Kaminibasia iii was affected by climatic...

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Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production and Food Security in Bangladesh

Cited by 24 publications

References 9 publications

A Comparative Analysis on Food Security in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar

A Comparative Analysis on Food Security in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar

Climatic Variability and Wet Season Rice (<i>Oryza sativa</i> L.) Production in North-West Bangladesh

The Sustainability of Rice-Based Cropping Systems in Coastal Bangladesh: Bio-Economic Analysis of Current and Future Climate Scenarios

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