Assessing Impacts of Seasonal Climate Variability on Maize Yield in Kenya

Mumo, Lucia; Yu, Jingjie; Fang, Ke

doi:10.1007/s42106-018-0027-x

Cited by 67 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…In the absence of that, average yearly major and minor rainfall amount will also provide enough basis for assessing the effect of the variability on crop production in each CAD [20]. Temperature also plays a major role in determining the overall relationship between crop production and other factors such as soil, water, and technology [22][23][24]53]. This observation formed the basis for recommending that a lot more effort must be done to improve crop production within the major season because of less rainfall variability compared to the minor season.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, there is a substantial evidence of adverse impact of change in seasonal or annual rainfall patterns on the production of some major cereals [19][20][21][22]. Also, it has been reported in other parts of the world that climate variability and/or change have been attributed to changes in production or will be responsible for future change in production dynamics [23][24][25][26]. Bewket [19] reported short rainy seasons (March-May) and much more variable rainfall periods between June and September.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, seasonal rainfall variability has a profound effect on soil water availability especially for crop production. In recent times, changes in rainfall distribution, interseasonal fluctuations, and erratic rainfall patterns have been reported to have resulted in reductions in crop production which has become a major issue to farmers and policy-makers as threats to food security as reported elsewhere [11,13,[24][25][26]. This is especially so for the major crops produced in Ghana, namely, cassava, cocoyam, plantain, and tomatoes [39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Rainfall Variability on Crop Production within the Worobong Ecological Area of Fanteakwa District, Ghana

Kyei-Mensah

Kyerematen

Adu-Acheampong

2019

Advances in Agriculture

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Crop production in the Fanteakwa District is predominantly rainfed, exposing this major livelihood activity to the variability or change in rainfall pattern. The net potential effect of severe changes in rainfall pattern is the disruption in crop production leading to food insecurity, joblessness, and poverty. As a major concern to food production in Ghana, this study seeks to show the relationship between the production of major crops and rainfall distribution pattern in the Worobong Agroecological Area (WAA) relative to food security in the face of climate change. The study analysed the variability in local rainfall data, examining the interseasonal (main and minor) rainfall distribution using the precipitation concentration index (PCI), and determined the pattern, availability of water, and the strength of correlation with crop production in the WAA. Data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) spanning a 30-year period and grouped into 3 decades of 10 years each was used. Selected crop data for 1993-2014 was also obtained from the Ministry of Food and Agriculture’s District office and analyzed for trends in crop yield over the period and established relationship between the crop data and the rainfall data. Part of the result revealed that rainfall variability within the major seasons in the 3 groups was lower than the minor seasons. It further showed that yields of three crops have declined over the period. Among the strategies to sustain crop production is to make the findings serve as useful reference to inform discussions and policy on adaptive agricultural production methodologies for the area in the face of changing climate.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Rainfall Variability on Crop Production within the Worobong Ecological Area of Fanteakwa District, Ghana

Kyei-Mensah

Kyerematen

Adu-Acheampong

2019

Advances in Agriculture

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“…Moreover, the uppermost (lowest) elevation with altitude (>5000 m/<0 m) often leads to random uncertainties in climatic variables during the quantification process (Allen et al, 2006). Consequently, the terrestrial heterogeneous classification influences socio-economic activity with a great inclination to rain fed agriculture (Mumo et al, 2018).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantile Mapping Bias Correction on Rossby Centre Regional Climate Models for Precipitation Analysis over Kenya, East Africa

Ayugi¹,

Tan²,

Niu³

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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Accurate assessment and projections of extreme climate events requires the use of climate datasets with no or minimal error. This study uses quantile mapping bias correction (QMBC) method to correct the bias of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the latest output of Rossby Climate Model Center (RCA4) over Kenya, East Africa. The outputs were validated using various scalar metrics such as Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and mean Bias. The study found that the QMBC algorithm demonstrate varying performance among the models in the study domain. The results show that most of the models exhibit significant improvement after corrections at seasonal and annual timescales. Specifically, the European community Earth-System (EC-EARTH) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) models depict exemplary improvement as compared to other models. On the contrary, the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace Model CM5A-MR (IPSL-CM5A-MR) model show little improvement across various timescales (i.e. March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND)). The projections forced with bias corrected historical simulations tallied observed values demonstrate satisfactory simulations as compared to the uncorrected RCMs output models. This study has demonstrated that using QMBC on outputs from RCA4 is an important intermediate step to improve climate data prior to performing any regional impact analysis. The corrected models can be used for projections of drought and flood extreme events over the study area. This study analysis is crucial from the sustainable planning for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and disaster risk reduction perspective.

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“…In order to improve food availability and sustainability in SSA, tested and credible crop enhancement strategies should be prioritized for adoption [23]. The authors of [24] identify suitable crop management strategies among many options-prioritizing them as crop upgrading strategies (UPS) through a systemization method based on importance, affordability, possibility, and effectiveness at overcoming the production challenges of cereals for low-income farmers in semi-arid areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Management Strategies of Pearl Millet Farmers to Cope with Seasonal Rainfall Variability in a Semi-Arid Agroclimate

et al. 2019

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Rainfed agriculture constitutes around 80% of the world’s agricultural land, achieving the lowest on-farm crop yields and greatest on-farm water losses. Much of this land is in developing countries, including sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where hunger is chronic. The primary constraint of rainfed agriculture—frequently experienced in SSA—is water scarcity, heightened by the unpredictability of season onset, erratic rainfall, as well as the inability of farmers to provide adequate soil and crop management. Farmers react differently to constraints, making a variety of choices—including the timing of planting, type of land cultivation, fertilization, and scattered fields, among many others. Limited information is available on the combined effects of these strategies for improving crop yield and water use efficiency (WUE). An experiment was co-conducted with farmers over four consecutive rainy seasons (2014–2018) in Tanzania, to evaluate these strategies for single and joint effects in improving yield and WUE on rainfed pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R.Br.). The treatments used were flat cultivation both without and with microdosing, as well as tied ridging without and with microdose interaction, with different planting dates depending on farmers’ decisions. Results show that farmers react differently to the early, normal, or late onset of the rainy season, and cumulative rainfall during its onset, which affects their decisions regarding planting dates, yield, and WUE. Microdose fertilization increases both the yield and WUE of pearl millet significantly, with greater effects obtained using tied ridging compared to flat cultivation. For low-income smallholder farmers in a semi-arid agroclimate, using tied ridging with microdosing during early planting is an effective response to spatiotemporal rainfall variability and poor soils.

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Assessing Impacts of Seasonal Climate Variability on Maize Yield in Kenya

Cited by 67 publications

References 20 publications

Impact of Rainfall Variability on Crop Production within the Worobong Ecological Area of Fanteakwa District, Ghana

Impact of Rainfall Variability on Crop Production within the Worobong Ecological Area of Fanteakwa District, Ghana

Quantile Mapping Bias Correction on Rossby Centre Regional Climate Models for Precipitation Analysis over Kenya, East Africa

The Management Strategies of Pearl Millet Farmers to Cope with Seasonal Rainfall Variability in a Semi-Arid Agroclimate

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