Assessing landslide susceptibility in Lake Abya catchment, Rift Valley, Ethiopia: A GIS-based frequency ratio analysis

Abstract

Ethiopia's varied landscape, significant rainfall, and diverse geological characteristics pose risks of landslides. The specific research area spans 40 km2 within the Lake Abaya catchment area in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia. This investigation aimed to map landslide susceptibility using remote sensing information, GIS technology, and frequency ratio analysis. It evaluated multiple factors influencing landslide susceptibility. The process involved meticulous mapping of thematic layers, utilizing GIS techniques and diverse data sources, including primary data, satellite imagery, and secondary sources. A combination of Google Earth image analysis and field surveys was used to map landslide susceptibility in inaccessible areas. It was determined that 138 landslide sites existed. Of these, 30% (41 points) were assigned to the test of the model and another 30% to the training of the model, for a total of 97 points. The landslide susceptibility was classified into five categories based on frequency ratio analysis of the landslide susceptibility index (LSI): very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The northeastern sector of the study area demonstrated a comparatively diminished susceptibility to landslides, ranging from low to moderate, whereas the central and southern regions showcased markedly elevated vulnerability. An evaluation of the model's accuracy using the area under the curve (AUC) method based on test inventory landslide data produced encouraging results: 84.8% accuracy on the success rate curve and 78.8% accuracy on the prediction rate curve. Based on the frequency ratio model, a susceptibility map is derived to represent susceptibility levels accurately.