Assessing livelihood vulnerability using a Bayesian network: a case study in northern Laos

Abstract

Agricultural transitions from subsistence to export-oriented production make households more reliant on volatile agricultural commodity markets and can increase households' exposure to crop price and yield shocks. At the same time, subsistence farming is also highly vulnerable to crop failures. In this work, we define household livelihood vulnerability as the probability of falling under an income threshold. We propose the use of a Bayesian network (BN) to calculate the income distribution based on household and community-level variables. BNs reflect relationships of dependence between variables and represent all variables as probability distributions, which allows for the explicit propagation of variability and uncertainty between variables. We focus on two agricultural frontier case study areas (CSAs) in northern Lao PDR that are at different stages in the transition from subsistence to export-oriented agriculture. Because agricultural production is the main livelihood activity in both CSAs, we develop a BN that calculates the probability distribution of net household agricultural production income. BN structure and parameterization are based on data collected in 110 household surveys across both CSAs, as well as interviews with villagers, government officials, and private sector actors. We analyze the effect of crop price and yield variability, land-use portfolio, and land holdings, on the probability of having a negative net agricultural income, which reflects a household's ability to meet its food consumption needs through cash crop sales. Results show that agricultural income is highly sensitive to rubber plantation area, rubber yield, and rubber price given the very large income potential of the crop. Households with larger agricultural areas have a lower probability of falling under an agricultural income threshold regardless of their diversification choices. Households that own more high-value cash crops are more buffered against rice yield shocks despite having higher agricultural income variability. However, low-income households are better off if they maintain a minimum level of rice sufficiency in combination with high-value cash crop production. Diversifying upland cash crops by increasing the share of cardamom (a lowvalue but low-volatility crop) at the expense of rubber (a highly lucrative crop with high price volatility) does not have a sizable beneficial impact, because returns from cardamom are significantly lower than for rubber. We show that BNs can be useful tools for the design and evaluation of rural development policies.

Food Systems Profile - The Lao People's Democratic Republic

“…Moreover, the development of monocultures and the concentration on a single cash crop becomes a risky activity for farmers. The shift from subsistence farming to export-oriented production exposes households to the volatility of international commodity prices and yield variations, which can be caused by climatic hazards (Junquera and Grêt-Regamey, 2020). In the case of crop failure, farmers cannot rely on income from other agricultural activities, such as rearing livestock, growing rice, and foraging for non-timber forest products, to feed themselves (Polthanee et al, 2021).…”

Exploring the structure of household social capital in rural Vietnam: Applying Bayesian network approach

“…Kemp-Benedict et al applied the BN to assess the relationships between household capitals as well as household livelihood aspects [ 31 ]. Meanwhile, Junquera and Grêt-Reganmey assessed the livelihood vulnerability using the BN model, they showed that the BN model reflects and allows investigation of the dependence relationships between indicators [ 32 ]. Other studies confirmed that using the BN approach usefully elucidates the dependence relationships or recognizes the interdependencies between various variables [ 32 , 33 ].…”

Participatory Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment of the Forest Dwellers: A Study of Fifteen Tribes and Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups in the Eastern Indian Region

“…They observed that livelihood vulnerability indices are mainly used by researchers to assess the changing climate vulnerability. Junquera and Grêt-Regamey (2020) have examined the effects of agricultural transitions on livelihood vulnerability of farmers in northern Laos. They have assessed livelihood vulnerability using the Bayesian network.…”