Assessing Modelling Approaches to the Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Policy

Kraev, Egor; Akolgo, Bishop

doi:10.1111/j.1467-7679.2005.00288.x

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…It is developed, for the case of Brazil, to incorporate data for the earnings received by households with different income levels. Such models perform well relative to other modelling approaches when analysing poverty impacts (Kraev and Akolgo 2005) The paper provides a context for the analysis by discussing tourism and poverty relief, as well as literature on tourism impact modelling. The ways in which tourism affects the distribution of income to poor households via the channels of prices, earnings and the government are examined and a CGE model is developed to take account of both the impact of tourism expansion and the distributional effects among rich and poor households.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tourism and poverty relief

Blake

Arbache

Sinclair

et al. 2008

Annals of Tourism Research

315

248

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This paper examines the issue of how tourism affects poverty in the context of the effects of tourism on an economy as a whole and on particular sectors within it. A framework for analysing the channels through which tourism affects different households is developed, and a computable general equilibrium model of the Brazilian economy is used to examine the economic impact and distributional effects of tourism in Brazil. It is shown that the effects on all income groups are positive. The lowest income households benefit from tourism but by less than some higher income groups. Policies that could redistribute greater shares of the revenue to the poor are considered.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tourism and poverty relief

Blake

Arbache

Sinclair

et al. 2008

Annals of Tourism Research

315

248

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In such an environment there is the need for a rigorous method for assessing the validity of these models and their predictions. One of the most serious criticisms of CGE trade models is the lack of validation of the models' predictions (Kraev and Akolgo, 2005). In other words, there is no way to tell whether or not the predictions match actual events based on historical data.…”

Section: Validation Of Cge Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Hammouda¹,

Osakwe²

2008

Development Policy Review

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Computable general equilibrium models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. There is, however, increasing discomfort with the use of these models, especially in Africa. This article demonstrates that the results of several such studies of the impact of trade reforms in Africa differ drastically in terms of both magnitude and direction, failing to take account of key features of African economies. It also outlines potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggests pitfalls to be avoided.

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“…The integration of CGE models with microsimulation models has allowed us to obtain the micro-impacts of macroeconomic changes by making use of heterogeneity in household-level surveys (see Davies 2004). Gunter, Cohen and Lofgren (2005) present a review on analyzing macro-poverty linkages (see also Lofgren 2005, Kraev andAkolgo 2005). Ben Hammouda and Osakwe (2008) look at the trade-focused CGE models in Africa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: A CGE - Microsimulation Analysis

Ahmed¹,

O’Donoghue²

2010

LJE

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This paper studies the impact of changes in the external balance of Pakistan. We explain why the economic growth achieved during the past decade was highly dependent on improvements in the external balance. Between 2001 and 2007, Pakistan benefited from an increase in remittances, foreign assistance from bilateral and multilateral sources, and a relatively stable exchange rate. After 2007, this performance came under pressure from external price shocks. The rise in the import prices of petroleum, raw materials and other manufactured goods has the potential to reduce the country's growth performance, impacting the competitiveness of the economy and threatening the gains achieved during past years. We integrate a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a microsimulation model to study the effects of changes in foreign savings and import prices faced by Pakistan. An increase in foreign savings leads to an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. The main sectors facing a decline in exports are textiles, leather, cement, and livestock. In this simulation food and oil prices decline and the factors of production that gain are agricultural wage labor and nonagricultural unskilled wage labor. The increase in import prices of petroleum or industrial raw material leads to a reduction in exports. In this simulation the crop sector is negatively impacted and returns to land and profits to farm owners increase, showing a change in favor of agricultural asset owners, while poverty and inequality increase.

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Assessing Modelling Approaches to the Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Policy

Cited by 6 publications

References 13 publications

Tourism and poverty relief

Tourism and poverty relief

Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: A CGE - Microsimulation Analysis

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