Abstract. Climate change is projected to increase the imbalance between the supply
(precipitation) and atmospheric demand for water (i.e., increased
potential evapotranspiration), stressing plants in water-limited
environments. Plants may be able to offset increasing aridity because
rising CO2 increases water use efficiency.
CO2 fertilization has also been cited as one of the
drivers of the widespread “greening” phenomenon. However, attributing
the size of this CO2 fertilization effect is
complicated, due in part to a lack of long-term vegetation monitoring
and interannual- to decadal-scale climate variability. In this study we
asked the question of how much CO2 has contributed towards
greening. We focused our analysis on a broad aridity gradient spanning
eastern Australia's woody ecosystems. Next we analyzed 38 years of
satellite remote sensing estimates of vegetation greenness (normalized
difference vegetation index, NDVI) to examine the role of
CO2 in ameliorating climate change impacts. Multiple
statistical techniques were applied to separate the
CO2-attributable effects on greening from the changes in
water supply and atmospheric aridity. Widespread vegetation greening
occurred despite a warming climate, increases in vapor pressure deficit,
and repeated record-breaking droughts and heat waves. Between 1982–2019
we found that NDVI increased (median 11.3 %) across 90.5 % of the woody
regions. After masking disturbance effects (e.g., fire), we statistically
estimated an 11.7 % increase in NDVI attributable to
CO2, broadly consistent with a hypothesized theoretical
expectation of an 8.6 % increase in water use efficiency due to rising
CO2. In contrast to reports of a weakening
CO2 fertilization effect, we found no consistent
temporal change in the CO2 effect. We conclude rising
CO2 has mitigated the effects of increasing aridity,
repeated record-breaking droughts, and record-breaking heat waves in
eastern Australia. However, we were unable to determine whether trees or
grasses were the primary beneficiary of the CO2-induced
change in water use efficiency, which has implications for projecting
future ecosystem resilience. A more complete understanding of how
CO2-induced changes in water use efficiency affect trees
and non-tree vegetation is needed.