Assessing Pandemic Uncertainty on Conditions of Vaccination and Self-isolation

Abstract

A share of predictable information about the forthcoming state of a three-sided coin (susceptible—infected—immune) with the regular and random transition times between states is used for assessing the degree of pandemic uncertainty in our model. Unreliable and unsafe vaccines (that do not guarantee absolute immunity) as well as long self-isolation making transition times random increase the degree of pandemic uncertainty, worsening the damaging impact for both society and the economy.

Navigability, Walkability, and Perspicacity Associated with Canonical Ensembles of Walks in Finite Connected Undirected Graphs—Toward Information Graph Theory

“…Otherwise, the graphs would scale up by log 2 3 ≈ 1.585 and log 2 4 = 2 if we used bits as a major information unit. The detailed information analysis of a two-state Markov chain shown in Figure 2a has been developed by us in [20], and in [30] we discussed information components in a three-state chain (Figure 2b). The four-state chain shown in Figure 2c has never before been discussed.…”

“…The rock-paper-scissors game (Figure 2b) becomes fair at p = 1/3, and the relevant information components are shown as dotted lines. The model of a three-sided coin (susceptible-infected-immune) was recently used for assessing pandemic uncertainty on conditions of vaccination and self-isolation [30]. The card suit game (Figure 2c) is fair when p = 1/4, as shown by the dashed lines in Figure 3a,b.…”