Assessing Potential Earthquake Loss in Mérida State, Venezuela Using Hazus

Abstract

The focus of the Hazus earthquake model has been largely U.S. centric due to a lack of standardized building-infrastructure data formats applicable elsewhere. In a combined effort between FEMA Region VIII and the Universidad de Los Andes, Venezuela, the present study uses the Hazus 2.1 software to simulate earthquake loss estimations for Venezuela. Population totals and demographic distributions were developed using Oak Ridge National Labs Landscan 2008 population data and the census 2011 for Venezuela. The accuracy of the model was further enhanced for Mérida State, located in western Venezuela, by collecting, incorporating, and developing region and specific inventories including soil maps, liquefaction and landslide susceptibility studies, demographic data, and building inventory information. We used USGS ShakeMaps scenarios for two potential earthquake events with peak ground accelerations proposed within Performance Based Seismic Engineering of Buildings, VISION 2000 recommendations. The region has not witnessed an earthquake with a magnitude greater than M 7 in the last 120 years. Given the historical record of seismicity and the seismotectonics in the region, it becomes increasingly important to understand the potential implications from moderate to large earthquakes in Mérida State, Venezuela.

Can Building Codes Stop the Vicious Cycle of Recurrent Disaster?

“…(5). Residential (left) and nonresidential (right) loss ratio in Mérida State for return period of 970 years scenario [11]. "The findings of this study are based on an important assumption: the seismic vulnerability and fragility relationships embedded in Hazus for unreinforced masonry and for the nonductile concrete frame buildings are truly representative of building types in Mérida State of Venezuela" [11].…”

“…Venezuela is a country with 912,050 km 2 of surface area and located in the northern part of South America, bounded on the north by the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, with Brazil to the south, Guyana to the east and Colombia to the west [11]. Seismicity is generated because the country is located between the South American and Caribbean plates that "consists of compressive, extensional and strike-slip tectonic regimes and its location is under current debate".…”

“…A seismic risk study was developed for Mérida State in order to be able to estimate the potential losses associated with various earthquake scenarios and inform governments on a long term plan for reducing earthquake disaster risks [11]. Two of the PGA values from Table 1 were compared using Hazus MH 2.1 with a ShakeMap as user supply [18].…”

“…(4). Residential (left) and nonresidential (right) loss ratio in Mérida State for return period of 475 years scenario [11]. Fig.…”

Influence of Seasonal Frozen Soil on Near‐Surface Shear Wave Velocity in Eastern Hokkaido, Japan

“…Near-surface shear wave velocity is of great importance in the fields of geophysics and earthquake engineering, since it is closely correlated with the physical and mechanical properties of soil and rock in shallow crust. In engineering practice, it has a wide range of applications, such as classification of building sites (Borcherdt, 1994), evaluation of liquefaction potential (Ahmadi & Paydar, 2014), estimation of seismic response (Choi & Stewart, 2005), and assessment of earthquake loss (Bendito et al, 2014). In recent years, shear wave velocity has been used to detect minor material changes in the subsurface for seismic monitoring of faults (Hillers & Campillo, 2018;Wegler & Sens-Schönfelder, 2007), volcanoes (Brenguier et al, 2014;Wegler et al, 2006), landslides (Bièvre et al, 2018;Mainsant et al, 2012), and hydrocarbon reservoirs (Bakulin & Calvert, 2006;Miyazawa et al, 2008).…”