Assessing predictive ability of three auroral precipitation models using DMSP energy flux

Lane, Cory T; Acebal, Ariel O.; Zheng, Yihua

doi:10.1002/2014sw001085

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 20 publications

(33 reference statements)

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“…Lane et al . [] have shown that several empirical models can be reasonably and equally accurate in predicting equatorward boundary of auroral oval in several precipitating electron energy ranges. We would like to note that we compare the total auroral heating as defined from GITM with the hemispheric power.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite possible underestimation of hemispheric power, the model equation (1) can be very useful for providing upper boundary conditions for global circulation models run in a forecasting mode. Lane et al [2015] have shown that several empirical models can be reasonably and equally accurate in predicting equatorward boundary of auroral oval in several precipitating electron energy ranges. We would like to note that we compare the total auroral heating as defined from GITM with the hemispheric power.…”

Section: 1002/2017sw001650mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ionosphere‐thermosphere energy budgets for the ICME storms of March 2013 and 2015 estimated with GITM and observational proxies

et al. 2017

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The ionosphere‐thermosphere (IT) energy partitioning for the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) storms of 16–19 March 2013 and 2015 is estimated with the Global Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Model (GITM), empirical models and proxies derived from in situ measurements. We focus on auroral heating, Joule heating, and thermospheric cooling. Solar wind data, F10.7, OVATION Prime model and the Weimer 2005 model are used to drive GITM from above. Thermospheric nitric oxide and carbon dioxide cooling emission powers and fluxes are estimated from TIMED/SABER measurements. Assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) estimations of hemispheric power and Joule heating are presented, based on data from global magnetometers, the AMPERE magnetic field data, SSUSI auroral images, and the SuperDARN radar network. Modeled Joule heating and auroral heating of the IT system are mostly controlled by external driving in the March 2013 and 2015 storms, while NO cooling persists into the storm recovery phase. The total heating in the model is about 1000 GW to 3000 GW. Additionally, we intercompare contributions in selected energy channels for five coronal mass ejection‐type storms modeled with GITM. Modeled auroral heating shows reasonable agreement with AMIE hemispheric power and is higher than other observational proxies. Joule heating and infrared cooling are likely underestimated in GITM. We discuss challenges and discrepancies in estimating and global modeling of the IT energy partitioning, especially Joule heating, during geomagnetic storms.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: 1002/2017sw001650mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ionosphere‐thermosphere energy budgets for the ICME storms of March 2013 and 2015 estimated with GITM and observational proxies

et al. 2017

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“…7 and 11). Statistical analysis based on 28 days of DMSP satellite energy flux measurements shows that OP can accurately describe the location of the auroral oval's equatorward boundary (Lane et al 2015). Auroral electron precipitation is expected to occur near upward R1, especially during intervals of IMF B z < 0 (Ohtani et al 2010;Korth et al 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of energy budget of ionosphere-thermosphere system during two CIR-HSS events: observations and modeling

Verkhoglyadova

Meng

Mannucci

et al. 2016

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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We analyze the energy budget of the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) system during two High-Speed Streams (HSSs) on 22-31 January, 2007 (in the descending phase of solar cycle 23) and 25 April-2 May, 2011 (in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24) to understand typical features, similarities, and differences in magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) coupling during HSS geomagnetic activity. We focus on the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere (by using coupling functions) and energy partitioning within the IT system during these intervals. The Joule heating is estimated empirically. Hemispheric power is estimated based on satellite measurements. We utilize observations from TIMED/SABER (Thermosphere-IonosphereMesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) to estimate nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) cooling emission fluxes. We perform a detailed modeling study of these two similar HSS events with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) and different external driving inputs to understand the IT response and to address how well the model reproduces the energy transport. GITM is run in a mode with forecastable inputs. It is shown that the model captures the main features of the energy coupling, but underestimates NO cooling and auroral heating in high latitudes. Lower thermospheric forcing at 100 km altitude is important for correct energy balance of the IT system. We discuss challenges for a physics-based general forecasting approach in modeling the energy budget of moderate IT storms caused by HSSs.

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“…When calculating the auroral precipitation, OVATION Prime accounts for several different auroral types (i.e., diffuse aurora, monoenergetic, broadband, and ion), seasonal variations, and the magnetic latitude (MLAT) and magnetic local time (MLT) of each of its modeled bins (which are 0.5° in MLAT by 0.25°, or 1 min, in MLT in size). All of which ensures that it is often more accurate at modeling the auroral oval than other real‐time models [ Newell et al , ; Lane et al , ] and can reliably predict when an aurora will be visible [ Machol et al , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While both OP10 and OP13 have been validated and found to provide reasonable estimates of the location and intensity of the aurora [e.g., Machol et al , ; Newell et al , ; Lane et al , ], no extensive testing has yet been performed on the accuracy of the SWPC forecast product or the location of the view line.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using citizen science reports to define the equatorial extent of auroral visibility

2016

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An aurora may often be viewed hundreds of kilometers equatorward of the auroral oval owing to its altitude. As such, the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) Aurora Forecast product provides a "view line" to demonstrate the equatorial extent of auroral visibility, assuming that it is sufficiently bright and high in altitude. The view line in the SWPC product is based upon the latitude of the brightest aurora, for each hemisphere, as specified by the real-time oval variation, assessment, tracking, intensity, and online nowcasting (OVATION) Prime (2010) aurora precipitation model. In this study, we utilize nearly 500 citizen science auroral reports to compare with the view line provided by an updated SWPC aurora forecast product using auroral precipitation data from OVATION Prime (2013). The citizen science observations were recorded during March and April 2015 using the Aurorasaurus platform and cover one large geomagnetic storm and several smaller events. We find that this updated SWPC view line is conservative in its estimate and that the aurora is often viewable further equatorward than is indicated by the forecast. By using the citizen reports to modify the scaling parameters used to link the OVATION Prime (2013) model to the view line, we produce a new view line estimate that more accurately represents the equatorial extent of visible aurora. An OVATION Prime (2013) energy flux-based equatorial boundary view line is also developed and is found to provide the best overall agreement with the citizen science reports, with an accuracy of 91%.

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Assessing predictive ability of three auroral precipitation models using DMSP energy flux

Cited by 11 publications

References 20 publications

Ionosphere‐thermosphere energy budgets for the ICME storms of March 2013 and 2015 estimated with GITM and observational proxies

Ionosphere‐thermosphere energy budgets for the ICME storms of March 2013 and 2015 estimated with GITM and observational proxies

Estimation of energy budget of ionosphere-thermosphere system during two CIR-HSS events: observations and modeling

Using citizen science reports to define the equatorial extent of auroral visibility

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