Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis

Abstract

We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence‐infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence–low infectiousness event and a low virulence–high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions.

The Pandemic and its Impacts

“…Infectious disease outbreaks can easily cross borders to threaten economic and regional stability, as has been demonstrated by the HIV, H1N1, H5N1, and SARS epidemics and pandemics (Verikios, Sullivan, Stojanovski, Giesecke, & Woo, 2015). Beyond the debilitating, sometimes fatal, consequences for those directly affected, pandemics have a range of negative social, economic and political consequences (Davies, 2013a).…”

“…Infectious disease disasters, including pandemics and emerging infectious disease outbreaks, have the potential to cause high morbidity and mortality in the world, and in fact they may acount for a quarter to a third of global mortality (Verikios et al, 2015). In developing countries, both pandemics and infectious diseases have the potential to kill claim many peopllivese, and the likelihood of deaths is within the range of 5 to 10 percent (Kern, 2016).…”

“…Recent influenza pandemics have killed significant numbers of people worldwide, and contributed to an estimated 8,870-18,300 deaths in 2009-2010 (Prager, Wei, & Rose, 2016). For example, May 2009 saw the emergence from Mexico of a new H1N1 virus capable of humanto-human transmission (Verikios et al, 2015). WHO reported 182,166 laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A/H1N1, with 1799 deaths in 178 countries up to August 13, 2009 (Rewar et al, 2015).…”

Assessing the anxiety level of Iranian general population during COVID-19 outbreak

“…Infectious disease disasters, including epidemics, pandemics and outbreaks, may cause high morbidity and mortality and may account for a quarter to a third of global death rate (Verikios et al, 2016).…”

The economic costs of natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and other calamities: An analysis of economic models that quantify the losses caused by disruptions

“…Verikios et. al [36] model the impacts of a global influenza pandemic under two different scenarios. The first scenario has a high mortality rate but a low infection rate.…”