Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed?

Chadwick, Cristián; Gironás, Jorge; Barría, Pilar; Vicuña, Sebastián; Meza, Francisco

doi:10.3390/w13010064

Cited by 19 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 104 publications

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“…Considering the static measures provided in Table 5, similar results are obtained in the literature [4], where the values of reliability are generally high (>0.945) compared to static resilience (0.0097-0.0275). Taking into account the changing climate conditions, system resilience can also be lower than reliability in the assessment of the reservoir performance [35]. The relationship between static risk measures (Table 5) indicates the inverse proportionality between resilience and vulnerability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System

Ignjatović¹,

Stojković²,

Ivetić

et al. 2021

Water

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The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to flood-protection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability, resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences. The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events (e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System

Ignjatović¹,

Stojković²,

Ivetić

et al. 2021

Water

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“…We argue these two nonstationarities—climate‐driven hydrology and energy—are crucial for contextualizing future environmental impacts, and specifically that understanding the role of volumetric water use for energy systems amidst these nonstationarities is critical for decision support as the future energy system is designed. Simultaneously, water has been and will continue to be strongly affected by climate change (Chadwick et al, 2020; Payne et al, 2004; Persad et al, 2020; Vorosmarty, 2000), while simultaneously being a required input for many energy systems that could be deployed for decarbonization (Efroymson et al, 2017; Tarroja et al, 2020; Williams et al, 2021). Yet, data and impact assessment methods for volumetric water use are subject to important limitations.…”

Section: Energy and Climate Nonstationaritiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water for energy: Characterizing co‐evolving energy and water systems under twin climate and energy system nonstationarities

Grubert

Marshall

2022

WIREs Water

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The energy system is a major water user, but understanding how much water is consumed and withdrawn for energy is a challenging empirical task: nonevaporative volumetric water use is not easily calculated from first principles. Water use also has impacts that differ in important ways depending on where water is abstracted and used, timing of use, and socioenvironmental context. Moreover, different decarbonization pathways and policy environments have very different water use implications. We currently face a crisis of twin nonstationarities in hydrology and energy systems that make understanding water use for energy critical for decision support as hydroclimate and energy systems change. Currently, water‐for‐energy data are highly uncertain and not centrally collected, which means researchers spend substantial effort collecting inventory data. Recent advances in impact assessment methods for water volumes focus largely on spatially resolved water scarcity evaluations, but robust conclusions can be elusive due to uncertain and low‐metadata inventory information. As water‐for‐energy quantification efforts progress, research should emphasize decision support for energy system design, incorporating crucial hydrologic dynamics. Beyond the location of water use, relative scarcity, and potential competing uses, these include sub‐daily to interannual temporal dynamics, the impacts of climate change on these dimensions, potential feedbacks between energy and water systems, and the impacts of hydrologic variability or change on policy‐based incentive structures. This article reviews prior US‐focused efforts to quantify water use for energy, highlights why these nonstationarities are analytically relevant with a brief policy case study, and highlights research needs for decision support under twin nonstationarities. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Sustainable Engineering of Water Engineering Water > Planning Water Engineering Water > Methods

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“…The three land cover scenarios for 2030 were simulated in the WEAP hydrological model (Water Evaluation and Planning; Yates et al, 2005), considering the same climatic conditions for each. The WEAP model, previously used in Chile (e.g., Vicuña et al, 2012;Chadwick et al, 2020;Barría et al, 2021), is a semi-distributed model that represents the relevant hydrological processes using empirical functions that describe the distribution of water in two soil water storages (root and deep storage). In this regard, the snow accumulation and snowmelt are based on the degree-day method, and the potential evapotranspiration (PET) was calculated with the Penman-Monteith equation.…”

Section: Hydrological Model Weapmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

et al. 2021

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Freshwater inputs strongly influence oceanographic conditions in coastal systems of northwestern Patagonia (41–45°S). Nevertheless, the influence of freshwater on these systems has weakened in recent decades due to a marked decrease in precipitation. Here we evaluate potential influences of climate and land cover trends on the Puelo River (640 m3s–1), the main source of freshwater input of the Reloncaví Fjord (41.5°S). Water quality was analyzed along the Puelo River basin (six sampling points) and at the discharge site in the Reloncaví Fjord (1, 8, and 25 m depth), through six field campaigns carried out under contrasting streamflow scenarios. We also used several indicators of hydrological alteration, and cross-wavelet transform and coherence analyses to evaluate the association between the Puelo River streamflow and precipitation (1950–2019). Lastly, using the WEAP hydrological model, land cover maps (2001–2016) and burned area reconstructions (1985–2019), we simulated future land cover impacts (2030) on the hydrological processes of the Puelo River. Total Nitrogen and total phosphorus, dissolved carbon, and dissolved iron concentrations measured in the river were 3–15 times lower than those in the fjord. Multivariate analyses showed that streamflow drives the carbon composition in the river. High streamflow conditions contribute with humic and colored materials, while low streamflow conditions corresponded to higher arrival of protein-like materials from the basin. The Puelo River streamflow showed significant trends in magnitude (lower streamflow in summer and autumn), duration (minimum annual streamflow), timing (more floods in spring), and frequency (fewer prolonged floods). The land cover change (LCC) analysis indicated that more than 90% of the basin area maintained its land cover, and that the main changes were attributed to recent large wildfires. Considering these land cover trends, the hydrological simulations project a slight increase in the Puelo River streamflow mainly due to a decrease in evapotranspiration. According to previous simulations, these projections present a direction opposite to the trends forced by climate change. The combined effect of reduction in freshwater input to fiords and potential decline in water quality highlights the need for more robust data and robust analysis of the influence of climate and LCC on this river-fjord complex of northwestern Patagonia.

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Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed?

Cited by 19 publications

References 104 publications

Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System

Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations: Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System

Water for energy: Characterizing co‐evolving energy and water systems under twin climate and energy system nonstationarities

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

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