Assessing responses of hydrological processes to climate change over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on resampling of future climate scenarios

Gao, Chao; Liu, Li; Ma, Di; He, Keqi; Xu, Yue‐Ping

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.013

Cited by 42 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…In addition, spatio-temporal and multi-variable aspects are frequently misrepresented by climate models (Maraun, 2016). This finding falls in line with the results of Dang et al, (2017) and Gao et al, (2019). As expected, the 14 climate models (without post-processing) were more biased than the postprocessed streamflows (Figure 22).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…However, recent studies state that the multi-model ensemble method cannot adequately describe uncertainty (Fatichi et al, 2016;Gao et al, 2019;Nearing and Gupta, 2018). Some possible reasons for this could be that this approach needs sufficiently large numbers of models and ensembles to span the range of possible physical representations (Boberg and Christensen, 2012), and a model consensus does not indicate reliability (Maraun et al, 2017).…”

Section: Jonathan Romero Cuéllarmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Improving hydrological post-processing for assessing the conditional predictive uncertainty of monthly streamflows

Cuéllar¹

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Jonathan Romero Cuéllarmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving hydrological post-processing for assessing the conditional predictive uncertainty of monthly streamflows

Cuéllar¹

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“…The plateau is not active in the rainfall-runoff process and is dominated by vertical hydrological processes (i.e., evaporation and percolation) [73,74]. With an increase in forest land, the evaporation and transpiration of the plateau increase under the future climate scenario, but decrease in the mountainous area [19], all of which suggests that the effect of topography on runoff processes may be greater than that of the slope ecological restoration.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The research has mainly focused on contribution rate analyses of historical meteorological data to runoff [9,10,11,12], analyses of climate change based on regional climate models (RCMs) [13], and assessments of the impact of climate change on runoff based on Global Circulation Models (GCMs) combined with a hydrological model [14,15,16,17]. Relevant studies show that the simulation ability of climate models will be significantly improved by schema integration [18,19]. The influences of slope ecological restoration on runoff are mainly studied by field experiments and historical data analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Slope Ecological Restoration on Runoff and Its Response to Climate Change

Qin

Liu

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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Slope ecological restoration and climate change are important factors affecting the hydrological processes of the Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai province, China. How to quantitatively identify the impact of slope ecological restoration on runoff and whether slope ecological restoration can mitigate the impact of future climate change on runoff are both very important. In this paper, the Huangshui River above the center of Minhe county was taken as the research area, and the Pinus tabulaeformis and shrubs were taken as the main forest land types of slope ecological restoration. First, based on the law of forest land variation, the construction scales of slope ecological restoration in different periods were identified. The influence of slope ecological restoration on runoff was then quantitatively evaluated by using a distributed hydrological model. Second, the future climate scenarios of five general circulation models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) from 2021 to 2050 were selected and modified by model integration. Combined with the slope ecological restoration scenarios, the influence of slope ecological restoration on runoff under future climate scenarios was explored. The results showed that the effect of slope ecological restoration was significant. Compared with 1980, the area of slope ecological restoration increased by 24% in 2017. Under the present climate conditions (1960–2017), different periods of slope ecological restoration have an effect on the process of runoff in the wet season (June, July, August, and September) and dry season (January, February, March, and December), which eliminates the maximum, replenishes the minimum, and reduces the variability of runoff processes in the watershed. Under the future climate scenario (2021–50), slope ecological restoration will reduce runoff. On the other hand, climate change will increase runoff, and the combination of the two effects will have a certain offsetting effect. On the whole, comparing the influence of slope ecological restoration on the runoff process with that of climate change in different seasons, due to the main influence of slope ecological restoration, the runoff decreased by about 55% in the temperate season (April, May, October, and November), and increased by about 50% in the dry season or wet season due to the main influence of future climate scenarios.

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“…Beside GCMs, hydrological modeling is also a powerful tool in the analysis of climate change as it is responsible for providing information on the impacts of future scenarios in the availability of water resources based on land use. There are numerous hydrological models developed by many researchers [18][19][20][21]. In general terms, they can be classified into two categories: lumped and distributed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selection of Effective GCM Bias Correction Methods and Evaluation of Hydrological Response under Future Climate Scenarios

Tan

Guzmán

Dong

et al. 2020

Climate

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Global climate change is presenting a variety of challenges to hydrology and water resources because it strongly affects the hydrologic cycle, runoff, and water supply and demand. In this study, we assessed the effects of climate change scenarios on hydrological variables (i.e., evapotranspiration and runoff) by linking the outputs from the global climate model (GCM) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for a case study in the Lijiang River Basin, China. We selected a variety of bias correction methods and their combinations to correct the lower resolution GCM outputs of both precipitation and temperature. Then, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the observed flow data and corrected historical GCM with the optimal correction method selected. Hydrological variables were simulated using the SWAT model under emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The results demonstrated that correcting methods have a positive effect on both daily precipitation and temperature, and a hybrid method of bias correction contributes to increased performance in most cases and scenarios. Based on the bias corrected scenarios, precipitation annual average, temperature, and evapotranspiration will increase. In the case of precipitation and runoff, projection scenarios show an increase compared with the historical trends, and the monthly distribution of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff shows an uneven distribution compared with baseline. This study provides an insight on how to choose a proper GCM and bias correction method and a helpful guide for local water resources management.

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Assessing responses of hydrological processes to climate change over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on resampling of future climate scenarios

Cited by 42 publications

References 84 publications

Improving hydrological post-processing for assessing the conditional predictive uncertainty of monthly streamflows

Improving hydrological post-processing for assessing the conditional predictive uncertainty of monthly streamflows

Effects of Slope Ecological Restoration on Runoff and Its Response to Climate Change

Selection of Effective GCM Bias Correction Methods and Evaluation of Hydrological Response under Future Climate Scenarios

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