Assessing Risks from Groundwater Exploitation and Utilization: Case Study of the Shanghai Megacity, China

Abstract

With rapid economic development, demand for water resources is continuously increasing, which has resulted in common overexploitation of groundwater, particularly in megacities. This overexploitation of groundwater over many years has brought a series of adverse problems, including groundwater level decline, land subsidence and hydrogeological issues. To quantitatively describe these risks, we propose a risk evaluation model for groundwater exploitation and utilization. By deducing and expanding on the cusp catastrophe type, this study breaks through the limitations on the catastrophe assessment method, e.g., the number of indicators, and establishes an improved catastrophe assessment model for groundwater exploitation and utilization risk. In addition, the index system of the risk evaluation is constructed including three criterion layers: groundwater system condition (B1), groundwater exploitation and utilization (B2) and groundwater environmental problems (B3) and is tested for the conditions in Shanghai City, eastern China. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive risk values for groundwater exploitation and utilization in all districts (counties) of Shanghai are between 0.68 and 0.85, which categorizes the city as in the moderate risk zone; therefore, the improved catastrophe model is suitable for assessing groundwater exploitation risk in Shanghai City and should be applicable more broadly for the effective protection and sustainable supply of groundwater.

Risk Evaluation of Ice Flood Disaster in the Upper Heilongjiang River Based on Catastrophe Theory

“…The catastrophe theory utilizes potential functions to classify the critical points of a system and investigates the characteristics of discontinuous changes near each critical point. The properties of the discontinuous state that are located around the crucial points are uncovered in order to conduct a more in-depth investigation of the process underlying discontinuous occurrences [33]. There are seven different major forms of catastrophe theory [34], as determined by the geometry of the restriction criteria.…”

“…By analyzing these extreme events, we can gain a better understanding of the risk characteristics of the system and take appropriate measures for risk assessment and decision-making. The control variables of the system must reach a certain threshold before they can complement each other [33].…”

Dynamic Evaluation Method for Mutation Degree of Passenger Flow in Urban Rail Transit

“…Catastrophe theory, proposed by the French mathematician René Thom, combines topology, singularity theory, and structural stability theory to represent a theoretical model for analyzing sudden and discontinuous phenomena in the development of dynamic systems [27]. Catastrophe theory is widely applied in various fields of emergency research, safety, and performance evaluations, such as control of biological populations [28], evaluations of utilization of water resources [29,30], environmental risk assessments of engineering [31][32][33], evaluation of economic competitiveness [34], and research on material performance [35,36]. In addition, catastrophe theory has also been applied to safety evaluations in the field of transportation [37,38].…”

Experimental study of land subsidence in response to groundwater withdrawal and recharge in Changping District of Beijing

“…Land subsidence induced by groundwater withdrawal has been a worldwide problem [1][2][3], and more than 60 countries around the world are facing issues associated with this problem [4]. Land subsidence usually leads to damage to the aquifer system, decrease in water quality, and destruction of subsurface and surface structures, such as underground tunnels, buildings, roads, railways and pipelines [5][6][7][8][9].…”