Assessing Sensitivity of Paddy Rice to Climate Change in South Korea

Abstract

Paddy rice constitutes a staple crop in Korea. This study conducted sensitivity analysis to evaluate the vulnerability of paddy rice to future climate change, and compared temporal and regional characteristics to classify regions with unfavorable water balances. Rainfall Effectiveness Index for Paddy fields (REIP), the ratio of effective rainfall and consumptive use, was used as a sensitivity index. Weather data from 1971 to 2010 and future climate change scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to evaluate the sensitivity. Results showed an overall increase in water requirements and consumptive use. The REIP values were small for every period, except the 2040s, 2060s, and 2080s under scenario RCP 4.5, and the 2040s and 2080s under scenario RCP 8.5. Both climate change scenarios showed high sensitivity in regions Jeollabuk-do, Jeollanam-do, and Gyeongnam-do. However, regions Gyeonggi-do, Gangwon-do, and Chungcheongbuk-do had low sensitivity compared to other regions. The REIPs were used to categorize sensitivity into four types: low consumption-water rich, low consumption-water poor, high consumption-water rich, and high consumption-water poor. The Gangwon-do region had the highest number of regions that changed from the low consumption-water rich category to the high consumption-water poor category, making it a priority for measures to improve its adaptive capacity for climate change.

Spatiotemporal Assessment of Agricultural Drought Using a Cell-Based Daily Soil Water Analysis Model

“…A higher REIC indicates favorable water balance conditions with an adequate environment for cultivating field crops. A lower REIC indicates unfavorable conditions for growing field crops and a higher sensitivity to agricultural drought [5].…”

“…As drought proceeds over a long term unlike other natural disasters, its damage can be significantly mitigated if it is detected earlier, or even while in progress. Therefore, scientists have tried to establish drought countermeasures suitable for different regions, based on identifying the temporal characteristics and spatial distribution of the drought [1][2][3][4][5].…”

Impact of Paddy Field Reservoirs on Flood Management in a Large River Basin of Japan

“…Green infrastructure is expected to make an additional contribution to disaster prevention along with the conventional gray infrastructure, but with lower construction and maintenance costs [3]. Among the various types of green infrastructure, the paddy field is well recognized in several Asian countries for its flood mitigation potential [4][5][6][7][8]. In Japan as well, the flood retention potential of paddy fields has been well reported.…”