Assessing spatiotemporal variation of drought in China and its impact on agriculture during 1982–2011 by using PDSI indices and agriculture drought survey data

Yan, Huimin; Wang, Shaoqiang; Wang, Junbang; Lu, Houquan; Guo, Anhong; Zhu, Zaichun; Myneni, Ranga B.; Shugart, Herman H.

doi:10.1002/2015jd024285

Cited by 73 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…After 2000, a wetting trend ( p < 0.01) was obtained across China as a whole and especially in northern China. A drying trend was found for southern China until 2011 (Yan et al, , ), which supports our results that climate change had favoured the overall increase of GPP and plant growth in China and northern China except southern China since 2000. Note that annual P r decreased from 2000 to 2011 in southern China and then increased after 2011 (Figure ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Monthly incident global radiation ( Q ) and net radiation ( R n ) were calculated from sunshine hour according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) method (Allen et al, ). The FAO R n method has been evaluated against observations at the Qianyanzhou flux tower site in southern China and then further applied to drought research in China (Yan et al, , 2016b).…”

Section: Datasets and Processing Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi‐model analysis of climate impacts on plant photosynthesis in China during 2000–2015

Yan

Wang

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Differences, arising from differences in gross primary production (GPP) model structures and driving forces, have fuelled arguments concerning interannual changes of GPP in China since 2000. To better investigate the interannual variability of GPP and its covariance with climate factors in China, this study adopted a multi‐model analysis based on three GPP models (i.e., Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon flux model [TEC], Breathing Earth System Simulator model [BESS], and MOD17 GPP model). The results show that annual GPP in China increased by 0.021–0.057 Pg C year−1 from 2000 to 2015 attributable to atmospheric‐CO2 fertilization effects and favourable climate change, that is, increasing precipitation (Pr) and temperature (Ta). However, northern China and southern China had a large difference in the amplitude of these GPP changes; annual GPP increased by 0.017–0.039 Pg C year−1 in northern China but only 0.001–0.018 Pg C year−1 in southern China. Northern China and southern China occupy contrasting climate zones and this contrast produced different interannual variability of GPP through different mechanisms. Northern China has a dry climate with GPP changes sensitive to Pr. As a result, more Pr along with higher Ta in northern China produced the strong uptrend of GPP from 2000 to 2015. In contrast, southern China has a wet climate with its GPP sensitive to solar radiation and Ta. For the interval of 2000–2015, decreasing radiation plus drought exerted a negative influence on GPP in southern China. This study highlights the diverse mechanisms in which climate change affects GPP in dry and wet climate zones. A robust multi‐model analysis is preferred to reduce uncertainties arising from a single GPP model and its driving data.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Datasets and Processing Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi‐model analysis of climate impacts on plant photosynthesis in China during 2000–2015

Yan

Wang

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Similarly, Yan et al . () found that drought area (drought severity) shows a significant increasing trend (decreasing trend) during 1982–2011, based on PDSI by using both Thornthwaite and Penman–Monteith methods. In terms of identifying drought events, a significant upward trend in the number of drought events has been found, which is different from that by Wang et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought characteristics over China during 1980–2015

Shao

Shu

Tan

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The self‐calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) was computed based on the four atmospheric reanalysis data sets combined with observational data over China during 1980–2015. The discrepancies of scPDSI among the four reanalysis data sets show the necessity of integrating multiple data sets. Drought characteristics, such as drought area, severity, duration, and frequency were examined based on multi‐data set mean scPDSI. The results reveal that significant drying trends are found in Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, southwest, southeast and entire China. Drought area (drought severity) has increased (decreased) by about 1.16% (0.015%) per decade over entire China. Trends in drought duration, temporally averaged severity and frequency also indicate that droughts become more serious in each region during the past 36 years. The identification of drought events in each month by the clustering algorithm shows that droughts over China are more and more frequent. In addition, 65 separate drought events with the duration longer than 3 months were identified under the area threshold of 150,000 km2. Through severity‐area‐duration analysis, the 2005–2015 drought is found to be the prominent event.

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“…Many drought indices have been developed to monitor drought evolution on region and global scales (Yan et al, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…The precipitation-runoff relationship (PPR) is an important issue in engineering hydrology, water resource planning and management, and watershed system evolution (Guo et al, 2016;Nourani et al, 2015). The focus of current researches involving the change and transformation process of the precipitation-runoff relationship.…”

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confidence: 99%

Characterizing drought by change in precipitation-runoff relationship: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

Zhang

Feng

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The frequency and intensity of drought is increasing dramatically with global warming. Yet, few studies have characterized drought from its impact on the ecosystem services, the mechanisms through which ecosystems support life. As a result, little is known about the implications of increased drought on resource management. This case study characterizes drought by linking climate anomaly with the change in precipitation-runoff relationships, in the Loess Plateau of China, a water-limited region where re-vegetation in the area makes drought a major concern. We analyze droughts with duration 5 greater than 5 years and annual precipitation anomalies more negative than -5%, we found that continuous precipitation shifts is able to change watershed water balance in the water limited area, multi-year drought caused the precipitation-runoff relationship to change with a significantly descending trend (p<0.05) compared to other historical records. For the whole Loess Plateau, the average runoff ratio decreased from 10 percent to 6.8 percent in 1991-1999. The joint probability and return period gradually increased with the increase of drought duration and severity. The ecosystem service of water yield was affected 10 easily when the drought duration is not less than six years and the drought severity is greater than or equal to 0.55 (precipitation around ≤212mm). At the same time, the growth ratio of annual NPP is also susceptible to prolonged drought, the growth ratio is lower in these watersheds which had a significant change in the PRR. Such studies are essential to ecosystem management in a water-limited area.

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Assessing spatiotemporal variation of drought in China and its impact on agriculture during 1982–2011 by using PDSI indices and agriculture drought survey data

Cited by 73 publications

References 54 publications

Multi‐model analysis of climate impacts on plant photosynthesis in China during 2000–2015

Multi‐model analysis of climate impacts on plant photosynthesis in China during 2000–2015

Drought characteristics over China during 1980–2015

Characterizing drought by change in precipitation-runoff relationship: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

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