Assessing Sub-Regional-Specific Strengths of Healthcare Systems Associated with COVID-19 Prevalence, Deaths and Recoveries in Africa

Abstract

Our results indicate that total number of COVID-19 cases (per million) has strong correlations (r s >0.5) with the median age; aged 65 older; aged 70 older; GDP per capita; number of hospital beds per thousand; Human Development Index (HDI); recoveries (per million); and the overall risk environment of a country. All these factors including the country's commitments to improving national capacity were related to the total number of deaths (per million). Also, strong correlations existed between the total recoveries (per million) and the total number of positive cases; total deaths (per million); median age; aged 70 older; GDP per capita; the number of hospital beds (per thousand); and HDI. The fitted regression models showed strong predictive powers (R-squared>99%) of the variances in the total number of COVID-19 cases (per million); total number of deaths (per million); and the total recoveries (per million). ConclusionsThe findings from this study suggest that patient-level characteristics such as ageing population (i.e., 65 + ), poverty, underlying co-morbidities-cardiovascular disease (e.g., hypertension), and diabetes through unhealthy behaviours like smoking as well as hospital care (i.e., beds per thousand) can help explain COVID-19 confirmed cases and mortality rates in Africa. Aside from these, other determinants (e.g., population density, the ability of detection, prevention and control) also affect COVID-19 prevalence, deaths and recoveries within African countries and sub-regions. PLOS ONEStrengths of healthcare systems associated with COVID-19 prevalence, deaths and recoveries

GHSI COVID-19 puzzle: did highly developed countries indeed fare worse?

“…Three severity predictors robustly selected by different methods -the median age, the epidemic onset, and the net immigrations -are generally supported by other studies' results, obtained in combinations with other predictors 6,8,11,13,14 . The fact that our analysis singled them out argues about their dominant roles.…”

“…The fact that our analysis singled them out argues about their dominant roles. Old age is undoubtedly a dominant risk factor for developing severe illness and dying from COVID-19 6,8,13,14 . The onset variable, not acknowledged only by the Random Forest, is obtained with a negative association to severity 11,37 .…”

“…With the COVID-19 pandemic, the GHSI scores were put for the first time to a real-life global testwhich they failed, according to most of the published attempts to assess their correlation with the epidemic scale [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] . An unexpected positive correlation between the GHSI categories and differently calculated mortality rates [5][6][7]12,14,17 and infection spread 5,7,8,10,[12][13][14] -deserving to be called the "GHSI puzzle" -suggested that the GHSI cannot be used to describe the national pandemic preparedness 19 .…”

Emerging Viral Infections, Hypertension, and Cardiovascular Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Narrative Review

“…Two studies were ecological designs that examined country-level indicators with COVID-19 infection rates. 19,20 Among 54 countries, the Spearman correlation coefficient between country-level CVD death rate and total COVID-19 cases per million was not significant, 19 as was a smaller study, including South Africa. 20 Authors of both studies noted that the findings were limited by the poor quality of country-level indicators for CVD in SSA.…”

Perceived risk of contracting COVID‐19 among healthcare workers in Ghana: A cross‐sectional study

“…The COVID-19 pandemic has affected many healthcare workers and has overwhelmed many healthcare systems, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. 17 The morbidity and mortality rates of the virus coupled with the associated lack of resources at many healthcare centers in Ghana are likely to create a high sense of insecurity in terms of contracting the COVID-19 virus for frontline healthcare workers. The high perceived risk of contracting the COVID-19 virus when not managed properly causes substantial fear, panic, anxiety, and burnout among these healthcare workers.…”