Assessing the Accuracy of Google Trends for Predicting Presidential Elections: The Case of Chile, 2006–2021

Vergara‐Perucich, Francisco

doi:10.3390/data7110143

Cited by 3 publications

References 21 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

Mental health and the ballot box: A correlational analysis of Google searches for mental health and national election periods in the United States and the United Kingdom from 2008 to 2020

Smith,

Graña,

Alibudbud

et al. 2024

Int J Soc Psychiatry

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: In electoral contexts, mental health topics have recently attracted sociopolitical relevance, influenced by policy developments, election-related psychopathology and popular discourse about individual candidates. Yet, whether this reflects generalised trends or is contingent on election-specific and contextual factors remains difficult to ascertain. Aims: This study sought to examine correlations between Google Trends (GT) data on mental health and four national elections in the US and the UK from 2008 to 2020. This was intended to yield preliminary insights into the relevance of mental health topics amongst voters and the potential impact of electoral cycles on patterns of online engagement with these issues. Methods: Monthly and daily Search Volume Indexes (SVI) were gathered from the ‘Mental Health’ category on GT in the US and UK from 2008 to 2023. SVI were evaluated around the past four national ballots, comparing election-year intervals and baseline data from the preceding year. Statistical tests were conducted to assess SVI and short- and long-term dynamics. Findings: The results showed heterogeneous SVI patterns related to mental health during elections in the US and the UK. In the US, there were statistically significant SVI increases proximal to the majority of elections as compared to data in the same calendar year, but these did not typically exceed baseline SVI. However, interestingly, divisive US contests showed correlations with several elevated SVI measures in the same and previous years. Conversely, there was a lack of consistent longitudinal trends in UK elections, perhaps informed by its disparate sociopolitical landscape. Conclusions: These findings underline the composite relationship between electoral politics and popular engagement with mental health topics around national votes, suggesting that this is driven more by situational factors rather than a recurrent electoral effect or signs of burgeoning engagement. Detailed research is required to understand the nuances and causality behind these dynamics and their wider implications.

show abstract

Mental health and the ballot box: A correlational analysis of Google searches for mental health and national election periods in the United States and the United Kingdom from 2008 to 2020

Smith,

Graña,

Alibudbud

et al. 2024

Int J Soc Psychiatry

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Can we predict multi-party elections with Google Trends data? Evidence across elections, data windows, and model classes

Behnert,

Lajic,

Bauer

2024

J Big Data

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Google trends (GT), a service aggregating search queries on Google, has been used to predict various outcomes such as as the spread of influenza, automobile sales, unemployment claims, and travel destination planning [1, 2]. Social scientists also used GT to predict elections and referendums across different countries and time periods, sometimes with more, sometimes with less success. We provide unique evidence on the predictive power of GT in the German multi-party systems, forecasting four elections (2009, 2013, 2017, 2021). Thereby, we make several contributions: First, we present one of the first attempts to predict a multi-party election using GT and highlight the specific challenges that originate from this setting. In doing so, we also provide a comprehensive and systematic overview of prior research. Second, we develop a framework that allows for fine-grained variation of the GT data window both in terms of its width and distance to the election. Subsequently, we test the predictive accuracy of several thousand models resulting from those fine-grained specifications. Third, we compare the predictive power of different model classes that are purely GT data based but also incorporate polling data as well as previous elections. Finally, we provide a systematic overview of the challenges one faces in using GT data for predictions part of which have been neglected in prior research.

show abstract

15 years of research on Google Trends: A bibliometric review and future research directions

Madsen

Silva

Sohail

2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Google Trends is a free analytic tool for measuring and monitoring web search data. Since its introduction in 2006, it has been widely used in research in a variety of academic fields. In this study, we conducted a bibliometric study of the first 15 years of Google Trends research (2007–2022). We extracted bibliometric data from the Scopus database which were then analyzed quantitatively using the Bibliometrix software package. In the paper, two types of analyses are carried out: 1) a citation-based analysis that focuses on the overall publication trends and the identification of the most prolific authors, documents, journals, and countries, and 2) a mapping of themes in GT research and how these have evolved. Overall, the results show that the research on Google Trends has grown considerably in recent years, particularly since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Research on GT has also become more diverse in terms of themes, with finance, Covid-19 and other health-related topics being the new dominant areas of research. On the basis of the findings, several areas for future research are outlined.

show abstract

Assessing the Accuracy of Google Trends for Predicting Presidential Elections: The Case of Chile, 2006–2021

Cited by 3 publications

References 21 publications

Mental health and the ballot box: A correlational analysis of Google searches for mental health and national election periods in the United States and the United Kingdom from 2008 to 2020

Mental health and the ballot box: A correlational analysis of Google searches for mental health and national election periods in the United States and the United Kingdom from 2008 to 2020

Can we predict multi-party elections with Google Trends data? Evidence across elections, data windows, and model classes

15 years of research on Google Trends: A bibliometric review and future research directions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About