Assessing the Cost of an Invasive Forest Pathogen: A Case Study with Oak Wilt

Abstract

Economic assessment of damage caused by invasive alien species provides useful information to consider when determining whether management programs should be established, modified, or discontinued. We estimate the baseline economic damage from an invasive alien pathogen, Ceratocystis fagacearum, a fungus that causes oak wilt, which is a significant disease of oaks (Quercus spp.) in the central United States. We focus on Anoka County, Minnesota, a 1,156 km(2) mostly urban county in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul metropolitan region. We develop a landscape-level model of oak wilt spread that accounts for underground and overland pathogen transmission. We predict the economic damage of tree mortality from oak wilt spread in the absence of management during the period 2007-2016. Our metric of economic damage is removal cost, which is one component of the total economic loss from tree mortality. We estimate that Anoka County has 5.92 million oak trees and 885 active oak wilt pockets covering 5.47 km(2) in 2007. The likelihood that landowners remove infected oaks varies by land use and ranges from 86% on developed land to 57% on forest land. Over the next decade, depending on the rates of oak wilt pocket establishment and expansion, 76-266 thousand trees will be infected with discounted removal cost of $18-60 million. Although our predictions of removal costs are substantial, they are lower bounds on the total economic loss from tree mortality because we do not estimate economic losses from reduced services and increased hazards. Our predictions suggest that there are significant economic benefits, in terms of damage reduction, from preventing new pocket establishment or slowing the radial growth of existing pockets.

Designing cost‐efficient surveillance for early detection and control of multiple biological invaders

“…1b; Appendix H). We also assume that each tree affected by invasion incurs a one-time average cost of US$2283, which is an estimated average cost of tree removal and replacement (Turner et al 2004, Haight et al 2011), but could capture other damages or control costs.…”

Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010–2020)

“…While the SOD pathogen is found most commonly in forests, much of the economically quantifiable damage caused by the disease occurs on developed land because oaks are a valued community tree on streets, and in parks, and yards. Some studies have forecast economic impacts of other invasive forest species, such as Kovacs et al (2010) and Sydnor et al (2007) for emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) and Haight et al (2010) for oak wilt (Ceratocystis fagacearum). Kovacs et al (2010) predict that from 2009e2018 the emerald ash borer infestation will encompass 25 states and result in the treatment, removal, and replacement of more than 17 million ash trees within communities with a mean discounted cost of $10.7 billion.…”

“…Sydnor et al (2007) estimate the emerald ash borer could result in removal and replacement costs of $1.0e$4.2 billion in Ohio communities. Haight et al (2010) predict that 76e266 thousand oak trees will become infected with oak wilt in the next decade in Anoka County, Minnesota, with discounted removal cost of $18e60 million.…”

Climate Change Impacts on Forest Management: A Case of Korean Oak Wilt

“…While some studies such as An et al [11] conducted an economic assessment by assuming the damage rate, we use the directly derived damage rate to assess the economic impact. Previous research such as Haight et al [12] assessed the economic damage from Ceratocystics fagacearum, a fungus that causes significant disease of oaks in the central United States using a landscape level model. In their study, the metric of damage is a removal cost.…”