Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake

Séférian, Roland; Berthet, Sarah; Chevallier, Matthieu

doi:10.1002/2017gl076092

Cited by 43 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 73 publications

(108 reference statements)

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“…In spite of these caveats, the results of our predictability study suggest high interannual predictability in terrestrial carbon fluxes that is significantly enhanced by forecast initialization of vegetation carbon and soil moisture. A perfect model study using a different Earth system model suggests that land carbon uptake has a 2 year predictability horizon (Séférian et al 2018), which is very comparable to the high predictability of NEP for lead years 1 and 2 that we find here. We find only a small role for external forcing in near-term predictability of NEP, in agreement with many other modeling studies performed on century timescales (e.g.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 85%

“…While the intrinsic predictability of terrestrial ecosystems on seasonal timescales is relatively high, predictability on interannual timescales is less wellknown (Luo et al 2015). Recently, Séférian et al (2018) analyzed interannual predictability in land carbon uptake using a perfect model framework; their results suggest a 2 year prediction horizon with highest predictability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. However, their investigation focused on the potential predictability of ocean versus land carbon fluxes, and did not include a detailed quantification of the drivers of terrestrial carbon predictability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system

Lovenduski

Bonan

Yeager

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Interannual variations in the flux of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) between the land surface and the atmosphere are the dominant component of interannual variations in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate. Here, we investigate the potential to predict variations in these terrestrial carbon fluxes 1-10 years in advance using a novel set of retrospective decadal forecasts of an Earth system model. We demonstrate that globally-integrated net ecosystem production (NEP) exhibits high potential predictability for 2 years following forecast initialization. This predictability exceeds that from a persistence or uninitialized forecast conducted with the same Earth system model. The potential predictability in NEP derives mainly from high predictability in ecosystem respiration, which itself is driven by vegetation carbon and soil moisture initialization. Our findings unlock the potential to forecast the terrestrial ecosystem in a changing environment.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system

Lovenduski

Bonan

Yeager

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Our study complements two recent studies of ocean carbon decadal predictions conducted at different modeling centers. Li et al (2016) use decadal predictions from MPI-ESM to investigate near-term changes in North Atlantic CO 2 flux, while Séférian et al (2018) use CNRM-ESM1 to assess the predictability horizon of globally-integrated ocean and land carbon fluxes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While these studies use different prediction systems, we nevertheless come to some of the same conclusions. For example, Séférian et al (2018) find that global ocean carbon uptake is potentially predictable for up to 6 years, and Li and Ilyina (2018) find high potential predictability in the North Atlantic that is engendered by initialization. These studies collectively suggest 5 predictability for near-term ocean carbon uptake on global and regional scales, which is beneficial for forecasting the future global carbon budget and climate system.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting near-term changes in ocean carbon uptake

Lovenduski

Yeager

Lindsay

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Annual to decadal variations in air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) impact the global carbon cycle and climate system, and previous studies suggest that these variations may be predictable in the near-term. Here, we quantify and understand the sources of near-term (annual to decadal) predictability and predictive skill in air -sea CO 2 flux on global and regional scales by analyzing output from a novel set of retrospective decadal forecasts of the Earth system. These initialized forecasts exhibit the potential to predict year-to-year variations in the globally-integrated air-sea CO 2 flux up to ∼7 years in advance. This 5 initialized predictability exceeds the predictability obtained solely from foreknowledge of variations in external forcing or a simple persistence forecast. The near-term CO 2 flux predictability is largely driven by predictability in the surface ocean partial pressure of CO 2 , which itself is a function of predictability in surface ocean dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity.Comparison with an observationally-based product suggests that the initialized forecasts exhibit moderate predictive skill in the tropics and subtropics, but low skill elsewhere. In the subantarctic Southern Ocean and northern North Atlantic, we find 10 long-lasting initialized predictability that beats that derived from uninitialized and persistence forecasts. Our results suggest that year-to-year variations in ocean carbon uptake may be predictable well in advance, and establish a precedent for forecasting air-sea CO 2 flux in the near future. IntroductionObservations collected over the past few decades indicate that the ocean has absorbed 160 Pg of excess carbon from the at-15 mosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution (Le Quéré et al., 2018); projections from climate models suggest that ∼540 Pg of excess carbon will reside in the ocean by the end of the century (under the RCP8.5 emission scenario;Ciais and Sabine, 2013). Accurate projections of past and future air-sea CO 2 flux are important for quantifying and understanding the changing global carbon cycle and for estimating future global climate change (Le Quéré et al., 2018).Superimposed on the background of long-term changes in ocean carbon uptake is substantial variability on global and 20 regional scales (McKinley et al., 2017). The recent literature highlights ocean carbon uptake variability that manifests on timescales of years to decades. Interannual variability in globally-integrated air-sea CO 2 flux has been estimated to have a standard deviation of 0.31 Pg C yr −1 and 0.2 Pg C yr −1 from observationally-based products and ocean biogeochemical models (Wanninkhof et al., 2013), respectively, which is on the order of 10% of the global-mean CO 2 flux (2.3 Pg C yr −1 ). A global extrapolation of sparse pCO 2 observations suggests that there is large variability on decadal 25

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“…A more recent effort demonstrates the potential for skillful initialized predictions of surface chlorophyll in the CCS with two year forecasts 13 . However, no studies have attempted to predict ocean biogeochemistry in the CCS at the multiannual to decadal scale, as decadal forecasting of ocean biogeochemistry is still in its infancy [14][15][16][17][18] . This temporal scale is critical for fisheries managers, as it aids them in setting annual catch limits, changing and introducing closed areas, and adjusting quotas for internationally shared fish stocks 19 .…”

Section: Forecasting Ocean Biogeochemistry In the California Currentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System

Lovenduski¹,

Brady²,

Yeager³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to the natural upwelling of corrosive waters that affect ecosystem function. Marine resource managers in the CCS could benefit from advanced knowledge of ocean acidity on multiyear timescales. We use a novel suite of retrospective forecasts with an initialized Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. Here we show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations multiple years in advance over a naïve forecasting method. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide predictions relevant to managing the onset and impacts of ocean acidification in this vulnerable region.

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Assessing the Decadal Predictability of Land and Ocean Carbon Uptake

Cited by 43 publications

References 73 publications

High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system

High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system

Predicting near-term changes in ocean carbon uptake

Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System

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