Assessing the diffusion of photovoltaic technology and electric vehicles using system dynamics modeling

Abstract

Amidst the sweeping changes in the global electricity and automotive sectors, we observe a rapid surge in the proliferation of distributed generation (DG) and electric vehicles (EVs), primarily driven by the widespread deployment of photovoltaic systems. The widespread embrace of EVs necessitates a dual approach of financial incentives and infrastructure development to enhance the appeal of these vehicles. The findings presented in this paper hold significant importance for policymakers, underscoring the urgency of transitioning toward sustainable decentralized power systems and promoting EV adoption. While this transition offers promising opportunities, it also presents formidable challenges. Successful integration of DG and EVs demands careful attention to policy and regulatory frameworks. Some experts advocate for simultaneous adjustments in design, addressing mobility limitations and offering incentives for DG and EVs. Given the multitude of uncertainties, the authors suggest employing a system dynamics model to analyze the impact of photovoltaic technology and EV diffusion. The paper concludes that, within the Colombian context, the potential exists, under specific conditions, to increase the adoption of solar panels and EVs in households. This, in turn, contributes to a reduction in CO2 emissions and a transformative shift in the composition of the automotive fleet toward EVs.