Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity

Abstract

h i g h l i g h t sWe present a method to analyse material criticality of infrastructure transitions. Criticality is defined as the potential for, and exposure to, supply disruption. Our method is dynamic reducing the probability of lock-in to at-risk technologies. We show that supply disruption potential is reducing but exposure is increasing. a b s t r a c tDecarbonisation of existing infrastructure systems requires a dynamic roll-out of technology at an unprecedented scale. The potential disruption in supply of critical materials could endanger such a transition to low-carbon infrastructure and, by extension, compromise energy security more broadly because low carbon technologies are reliant on these materials in a way that fossil-fuelled energy infrastructure is not. Criticality is currently defined as the combination of the potential for supply disruption and the exposure of a system of interest to that disruption. We build on this definition and develop a dynamic approach to quantifying criticality, which monitors the change in criticality during the transition towards a low-carbon infrastructure goal. This allows us to assess the relative risk of different technology pathways to reach a particular goal and reduce the probability of being 'locked in' to currently attractive but potentially future-critical technologies. To demonstrate, we apply our method to criticality of the proposed UK electricity system transition, with a focus on neodymium. We anticipate that the supply disruption potential of neodymium will decrease by almost 30% by 2050; however, our results show the criticality of low carbon electricity production increases ninefold over this period, as a result of increasing exposure to neodymium-reliant technologies.

Metal Criticality Determination for Australia, the US, and the Planet—Comparing 2008 and 2012 Results

“…Complementary academic studies are rapidly evolving and various versions of criticality methodology have been presented [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17].…”

Critical Minerals and Energy–Impacts and Limitations of Moving to Unconventional Resources

“…Although the timing varies, these studies anticipate a deficit of supply at some stage [24,25,63]. As with the present study, this leads to a delay in the roll-out of technology, which may eventually catch up to the original expected demand.…”

“…With regards to Dy/Nd, most studies anticipate that there is a significant risk that supply will be insufficient to meet demand under current conditions, with greater recycling and material substitution being key methods to alleviate supply risk significantly, although not entirely [24,25,45,63]. Although the timing varies, these studies anticipate a deficit of supply at some stage [24,25,63].…”

“…Important examples have been: neodymium and dysprosium for permanent magnets used in wind turbines and electric vehicles [22][23][24][25]; platinum group metals (PGMs) with particular reference to fuel cell technology [23,[26][27][28][29][30][31]; photo-active materials for thin-film solar cells (cadmium, tellurium, selenium, gallium, indium) [32][33][34][35][36][37][38]; lithium for batteries in electric vehicles [39][40][41][42][43]; rare earth elements (REE) (rare earth elements typically include 17 elements, scandium, yttrium, and the lanthanide series. In the case of this study, the REE of interest are neodymium, dysprosium and yttrium.…”

Towards a multi-dimensional methodology supporting a safeguarding decision on the future access to mineral resources

“…of supply disruption (e.g. Erdmann and Graedel, 2011;Zhanheng, 2011;Peiró et al, 2013;Roelich et al, 2014;Goe and Gaustad 2014;Baldi et al, 2014). This risk will not be the same for all minerals and their derivatives, but for sure it will not affect only the Bhigh-tech^metals 1 characterised by (so far) limited recycling, deficient knowledge of their resources/reserves (often exploited as by-or co-products) and confined production to few regions (e.g.…”