Assessing the ecological sustainability of a forest management system using the ISO Bowtie Risk Management Assessment Tool

Abstract

The boreal zone is at risk of cumulative effects of natural resource extraction activities, which may be further exacerbated in the face of climate change. A major challenge is the lack of common approaches to assess the effectiveness of management measures (e.g., acts, regulations, standards, guidelines, best management practices and certification systems) to determine if the policy objective of sustainable management of the boreal zone is being met. The International Organization of Standardization (ISO) 31000 Risk Management Standard and ISO 31010 Bowtie Risk Management Assessment Tool provide a recognized and credible approach for analyzing risk of policy failure, by articulating: (1) the "risk pathway", linking the pressures, effects and impacts based on science; (2) the performance of the system of management measures in reducing risk; and, (3) the interactive nature of management measures in the presence of escalating factors, including climate change. Here we present the first application of the Bowtie tool in terrestrial ecosystem management by examining forest management pressures and impacts on water quality and biodiversity. We provide a policy analysis tool with potential for addressing risks associated with the future sustainability of the boreal zone. Dans cet article, nous présentons les résultats de la toute première application de la méthode Bowtie à la gestion des écosystèmes terrestres en examinant les pressions exercées par l'aménagement forestier et ses impacts sur la qualité de l' eau et la biodiversité. Nous proposons ainsi un outil d'analyse des politiques qui permettra d' évaluer les risques liés à l'avenir de la durabilité dans la zone boréale.

Cumulative Effects and Boreal Woodland Caribou: How Bow-Tie Risk Analysis Addresses a Critical Issue in Canada's Forested Landscapes

“…The threats, barriers, mitigation, and escalation factors included in our framework correspond to threats and interventions outlined in Canada's Woodland Caribou (boreal population) recovery strategy (Environment Canada, 2012). The configuration of our framework contrasts with previously developed ecological BRAT frameworks (Elliott et al, 2017;Kishchuk et al, 2018), where all threats and barriers were considered to be anthropogenic. Current ecological models suggest that additive anthropogenic and natural disturbances both cause range-wide declines in boreal caribou (Environment Canada, 2011;; our framework shows both human and natural threats and barriers.…”

“…Hence, BRAT frameworks can potentially contribute a clearer understanding to the complexity of cumulative effect problems. The BRAT is only now starting to be applied for identifying and managing significant environmental issues (International Council for Exploration of the Sea, 2014; Elliott et al, 2017;Kishchuk et al, 2018).…”

Implementing Sustainably Managed Fisheries Using Ecological Risk Assessment and Bowtie Analysis

“…A crucial aspect is an assessment of the effectiveness of the management controls [20]. Effectiveness of these management controls determines whether the effects of human pressures on ecological components and their impacts are reduced to a level that will not undermine achieving their management objectives [16,21]. Therefore, they should form an important part of the assessment of risk.…”

“…To keep it simple for the purpose of the paper, the BTA 2 was not differentiated into the different commercial fishing sectors. Figure A1 presents a summarised form of the BTA 1 to make it visually clear [21]. There were 13 HP stressors that could potentially contribute to this undesirable event ( Figure A1).…”

“…The escalating factor of climate change potentially interacted with six of these preventative management controls indicating that the effectiveness of these controls could be undermined as climate change impacts on the east coast of Australia increase over time. Figure A2 presents a summarised form of the BTA 2 to make it visually clear [21] and the complete bowties are presented in Figures A3 and A4. Examining the CTR section of BTA 2 shows there are currently 11 (47.8%) ecological characteristics contributing to mulloway's low capacity to respond to human pressures and nine (39%) characteristics for which there is no information.…”