Assessing the Effect of Increased Deportations on Mexican Migrants’ Remittances and Savings Brought Home

Abstract

Beginning in the 1990s and intensifying after the events of September 11, deportations in the United States increased to record levels under President Obama and continued at high levels under President Trump. Although a growing literature addresses how migrants respond to the shifting context of reception, empirical evidence on how migrants’ remitting and saving behavior changed as a result of immigration enforcement remains limited. Using detailed individual-level data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP, N = 6787) for the years 1970–2019, this study examines how deportations relate to Mexican migrants’ joint decisions to remit and/or save, and how this relationship differs by documentation status. Results from multinomial logistic regressions reveal that rising deportations are associated with an increase in the transnational economic engagement of undocumented migrants. This is largely due to an increase in remittances; savings brought back decrease with rising deportations, likely because keeping savings in the United States is riskier than sending money back directly. Among documented migrants, the remitting and saving behavior does not appear to change as deportations rise. Analyzing these behaviors together is important to gain a more complete understanding of migrants’ transnational economic ties and links to the country of destination.

The Tradeoff of Temporariness: Economic and Social Impacts of H-2A Status on Mexican Migrant Men

“…A majority of H-2A migrants entered the United States in years of high levels of border militarization and internal immigration enforcement (Massey, Durand and Pren 2016). Research has indicated that, when deportations increase, undocumented migrants defensively shift from saving money to remitting money (Weber and Massey 2020; see also Amuedo-Dorantes and Pozo 2006). Undocumented migrants in the sample may, then, have been more prone to remit larger amounts out of fear of deportation.…”

“…The United States provides a compelling case for this analysis because of ongoing categorical substitution (De Haas et al 2019) between temporary H-2A migrants and undocumented migrants (Martin 2017a;Massey 2020;Portes 2020). Undocumented migration and temporary legal migration have long been linked in the United States, with one status substituting for the other based on the needs of employers, the direction of public sentiment, and the strategic calculations of politicians (Massey 2020).…”

“…The United States provides a compelling case for this analysis because of ongoing categorical substitution (De Haas et al 2019) between temporary H-2A migrants and undocumented migrants (Martin 2017a;Massey 2020;Portes 2020). Undocumented migration and temporary legal migration have long been linked in the United States, with one status substituting for the other based on the needs of employers, the direction of public sentiment, and the strategic calculations of politicians (Massey 2020). For example, scholars have referred to the circulation of undocumented migrants in the United States as a de facto guest-worker program, one that substituted for the de jure Bracero Program after its termination in 1964 (Massey and Pren 2012).…”