Assessing the effect of land use change on catchment runoff by combined use of statistical tests and hydrological modelling: Case studies from Zimbabwe

Lørup, Jens Kristian; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Mazvimavi, Dominic

doi:10.1016/s0168-1176(97)00311-9

Cited by 251 publications

(146 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Empirical models, such as timeseries analyses and hydrological mechanisms, have been used to study the influence of climate change on runoff variation [11][12][13]. The continuous increase in anthropogenic activities can be simplified and represented as LU changes, enabling the application of comprehensive models and statistical methods [14][15][16]. Also, the impacts of LU changes on surface runoff at different spatial and temporal scales have been studied [17][18][19][20][21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Surface Runoff in the Mountainous Region of the Haihe River Basin, China

Zheng

Huang

et al. 2018

Advances in Meteorology

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The relative contributions of different factors to the variation in surface runoff have been broadly quantified. However, little attention has been paid to how these relative contributions have changed over time. We analyzed the changes in surface runoff during 1980-2010 in six subbasins in the mountainous region of the Haihe River Basin, one of the most serious water shortage regions in China, and identified the changes in the relative contributions of climate (precipitation and temperature) and land-use to surface runoff decrease. There was a decreasing tendency in surface runoff in all subbasins, four of which had an abrupt change point around 1998. Comparing the relative contributions before and after 1998 in the four subbasins, the average influence of climate was found to decline dramatically from 67.1% to 30.5%, while that of land-use increased from 23.9% to 69.5% mainly due to the increase of forest area. Our results revealed that the primary environmental factor responsible for runoff variations was not constant, and an alternation may accentuate the impact and stimulate an abrupt change of runoff in semiarid and semihumid mountainous regions. This will help in taking tracking measures to deal with the complex water resource challenges according to different driving factors.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Surface Runoff in the Mountainous Region of the Haihe River Basin, China

Zheng

Huang

et al. 2018

Advances in Meteorology

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“…Understanding these effects is of key importance since in many regions a rapid increase in population density often causes changes in land use and cover where forests and wetlands are converted to agricultural land. Studies by Bewket and Sterk (2005) and Lørup et al (1998) showed that land cover changes cause changes in hydrological regimes that affect the stream flow volume but also the pattern of stream flow and peak flows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in land cover, rainfall and stream flow in Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, Blue Nile basin – Ethiopia

Rientjes

Haile

Kebede

et al. 2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

172

140

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Abstract. In this study we evaluated changes in land cover and rainfall in the Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment in the Upper Blue Nile basin and how changes affected stream flow in terms of annual flow, high flows and low flows. Land cover change assessment was through classification analysis of remote sensing based land cover data while assessments on rainfall and stream flow data are by statistical analysis. Results of the supervised land cover classification analysis indicated that 50.9 % and 16.7 % of the catchment area was covered by forest in 1973 and 2001, respectively. This significant decrease in forest cover is mainly due to expansion of agricultural land.By use of a change detection procedure, three periods were identified for which changes in rainfall and stream flow were analyzed. Rainfall was analyzed at monthly base by use of the Mann-Kendall test statistic and results indicated a statistically significant, decreasing trend for most months of the year. However, for the wet season months of June, July and August rainfall has increased. In the period 1973-2005, the annual flow of the catchment decreased by 12.1 %. Low flow and high flow at daily base were analyzed by a low flow and a high flow index that is based on a 95 % and 5 % exceedance probability. Results of the low flow index indicated decreases of 18.1 % and 66.6 % for the periods 1982-2000 and 2001-2005 respectively. Results of high flows indicated an increase of 7.6 % and 46.6 % for the same periods. In this study it is concluded that over the period 1973-2005 stream flow has changed in the Gilgel Abbay catchment by changes in land cover and changes in rainfall.

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“…Table IV. "Reference [19] shows that the hydrological model is valid when R 2 > 0.80 and %WBL < 10%". From the Table IV it is clear that these two values meet the criteria for all sub-catchments.…”

Section: E Model Performancementioning

confidence: 99%

Automatic Multi-Objective Calibration of a Rainfall Runoff Model for the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland, Australia

Amir¹,

Khan²,

Rasul³

et al. 2013

IJESD

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Assessing the effect of land use change on catchment runoff by combined use of statistical tests and hydrological modelling: Case studies from Zimbabwe

Cited by 251 publications

References 15 publications

Dynamic Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Surface Runoff in the Mountainous Region of the Haihe River Basin, China

Dynamic Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Surface Runoff in the Mountainous Region of the Haihe River Basin, China

Changes in land cover, rainfall and stream flow in Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, Blue Nile basin – Ethiopia

Automatic Multi-Objective Calibration of a Rainfall Runoff Model for the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland, Australia

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