Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Middle Rio Grande Surface Water Supplies Using a Simple Water Balance Reservoir Model

Holmes, Robyn N.; Mayer, Alex; Gutzler, David S.; Chavira, Luis Garnica

doi:10.1175/ei-d-21-0025.1

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Second, climate change in the headwaters of the Rio Grande is expected substantially to decrease downstream supplies, with releases from Elephant Butte reservoir projected to decline 10% in 2021–2070 than in 1971–2020 [ 29 ]. Using a pessimistic climate change scenario associated with the Access85 climate model projection, inflows into Elephant Butte will decline by 39% on average over the period 2020–2070, effectively reducing average water availability for EPW from the Rio Grande by the same fraction.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictions of household water affordability under conditions of climate change, demographic growth, and fresh groundwater depletion in a southwest US city indicate increasing burdens on the poor

2022

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Reduced river flows and groundwater depletion as a result of climate change and population growth have increased the effort and difficulty accessing and processing water. In turn, residential water costs from municipal utilities are predicted to rise to unaffordable rates for poor residential water customers. Building on a regional conjunctive use model with future climate scenarios and 50-year future water supply plans, our study communicates the effects of climate change on poor people in El Paso, Texas, as water becomes more difficult and expensive to obtain in future years. Four scenarios for future water supply and future water costs were delineated based on expected impacts of climate change and groundwater depletion. Residential water use was calculated by census tract in El Paso, using basic needs indoor water use and evaporative cooling use as determinants of household water consumption. Based on household size and income data from the US Census, fraction of household income spent on water was determined. Results reveal that in the future, basic water supply will be a significant burden for 40% of all households in El Paso. Impacts are geographically concentrated in poor census tracts. Our study revealed that negative impacts from water resource depletion and increasing populations in El Paso will lead to costly and difficult water for El Paso water users. We provide an example of how to connect future resource scenarios, including those affected by climate change, to challenges of affordability for vulnerable consumers.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictions of household water affordability under conditions of climate change, demographic growth, and fresh groundwater depletion in a southwest US city indicate increasing burdens on the poor

2022

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“…In this study, a hydrological analysis of the reservoir was performed by calculating its supply using methods S1-S4, then the differences between reservoir water storage were analyzed. The hydrological factors of the reservoir were calculated by simplifying Equation ( 5) [29,30]:…”

Section: Assessment Using Hydrological Verification Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Strategy to Quantify Water Supply of an Agricultural Reservoir for Integrated Water Management Policy

2022

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A data-driven approach is required to scientifically manage agricultural water resources in accordance with the integrated water management policy of South Korea. In this study, a quantification strategy is presented to calculate reservoir supply by comparing the results with the actual reservoir water storage. Strategies considering current calculation methods were divided into canal flow measurement (S1), theoretical flow rate (S2), water storage decrease in field practice (S3), and water demand in design practice (S4), utilizing water levels of the reservoir and its canal and the level–flow rate curve obtained from surveying the canal flow. Each strategy was assessed through hydrological verification of reservoir water balance modeling. Based on the determination coefficient (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and relative error (RE) values, the S1 method was found to be the most suitable. S2 had lower reliability than S1, while S3 and S4 satisfied neither R2 nor NSE and had a larger RE than S1 and S2. To accurately quantify agricultural water supplies, the importance of directly measuring reservoir canal flows must be emphasized using automatic water level and flow gauges in canals. This study provides insights into more scientific management of agricultural reservoir water supplies and more effective monitoring of agricultural water usage.

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“…However, conditions for fish in other rivers and streams in the western United States are likely to continue declining, as surface water availability is predicted to diminish (Holmes et al, 2022). Across the western United States, water abstraction and groundwater pumping threaten many basins (Jaeger et al, 2014;Perkin et al, 2017).…”

Section: Conservation Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fishes move to transient local refuges, not persistent landscape refuges during river drying experiment

Archdeacon,

Gonzales,

Yackulic

2024

Freshwater Biology

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Anthropogenically driven flow intermittency is increasing in freshwater streams, with important implications for the management and conservation of aquatic ecosystems. Because most freshwater fishes are mobile, they are expected to emigrate from intermittent reaches, but this may not be true in streams transitioning from perennial to intermittent. Here, we attempt to determine if riverine fishes vacate drying reaches before intermittency or remain in local refuges. We implemented a controlled, in situ experimental flow reduction resulting in intermittency, reducing flows from ~1.0 to 0 m3/s over a 3‐week period. We monitored fish and fish‐habitat changes over a 5‐week period before, during and after flow reductions. During flow reductions, total wetted habitat was ultimately reduced by 91%. Habitat loss over time was not equal among habitat types: pool habitat increased slightly as run habit was lost, and backwater and isolated pool habitats were not strongly related to discharge. Likewise, water depth in run habitats decreased faster than other habitats. Only the river carpsucker Carpiodes carpio appeared to move upstream during flow recession; seven other species remained within drying sites. Habitat loss negatively affected fish populations, but at a lower rate than that at which habitat was lost, until sites dried completely. Overall, two species, red shiner Cyprinella lutrensis and western mosquitofish Gambusia affinis, had increased population growth during the study, whereas the remaining species had population declines. Fishes were able to find transient local refuges during flow reductions but did not vacate sites before intermittent conditions. Accounting for lack of emigration from anthropogenic flow‐intermittent reaches will be important for designing conservation actions for fishes threatened by increasing flow intermittency. Creation of refuge habitats may not be effective for widely dispersed species that do not actively seek refuge habitats, unless those habitats support enough individuals to maintain resilience following the intermittent conditions.

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Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Middle Rio Grande Surface Water Supplies Using a Simple Water Balance Reservoir Model

Cited by 10 publications

References 31 publications

Predictions of household water affordability under conditions of climate change, demographic growth, and fresh groundwater depletion in a southwest US city indicate increasing burdens on the poor

Predictions of household water affordability under conditions of climate change, demographic growth, and fresh groundwater depletion in a southwest US city indicate increasing burdens on the poor

A Strategy to Quantify Water Supply of an Agricultural Reservoir for Integrated Water Management Policy

Fishes move to transient local refuges, not persistent landscape refuges during river drying experiment

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