Assessing the exposure of lion tamarins (Leontopithecusspp.) to future climate change

Abstract

Understanding how biodiversity will respond to climate change is a major challenge in conservation science. Climatic changes are likely to impose serious threats to many organisms, especially those with narrow distribution ranges, small populations and low dispersal capacity. Lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) are endangered primates endemic to Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF), and all four living species are typical examples of these aggravating conditions. Here, we integrate ecological niche modeling and GIS-based information about BAF remnants and protected areas to estimate the exposure (i.e., the extent of climate change predicted to be experienced by a species) of current suitable habitats to climate change for 2050 and 2080, and to evaluate the efficacy of existing reserves to protect climatically suitable areas. Niche models were built using Maxent and then projected onto seven global circulation models derived from the A1B climatic scenario. According to our projections, the occurrence area of L. caissara will be little exposed to climate change. Western populations of L. chrysomelas could be potentially exposed, while climatically suitable habitats will be maintained only in part of the eastern region. Protected areas that presently harbor large populations of L. chrysopygus and L. rosalia will not retain climatic suitability by 2080. Monitoring trends of exposed populations and protecting areas predicted to hold suitable conditions should be prioritized. Given the potential exposure of key lion tamarin populations, we stress the importance of conducting additional studies to assess other aspects of their vulnerability (i.e., sensitivity to climate and adaptive capacity) and, therefore, to provide a more solid framework for future management decisions in the context of climate change.

Population Genetic Structure of an Endangered Endemic Primate (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) in a Highly Fragmented Atlantic Coastal Rain Forest

“…Recent research has shown that the situation for GHLTs has worsened especially in the western portion of its geographic distribution Zeigler et al, 2010;Meyer et al, 2014]. Only 36% of the habitat within the GHLT distribution area (and study area) is suitable for the species' persistence [Guy et al, 2016].…”

“…To the east, the population of GHLTs in Una Biological Reserve represents an important genetic population (e.g., no evidence for a recent genetic bottleneck was found in our study). The REBIO Una and surrounding forests have been considered a potential source population for the conservation of GHLTs because of the likelihood that the population will maintain genetic diversity over time [Holst et al, 2006;Zeigler et al, 2010], and that they are located in a climatically suitable region for GHLT persistence [Meyer et al, 2014;Guy et al, 2016]. However, the maintenance of a viable population of GHLTs in the REBIO Una can be compromised if the process of deforestation in its surroundings continues [Zeigler et al, 2013].…”

“…This genetic contribution of the western population to the overall genetic diversity of the species warrants the need for further research (using other genetic markers and more populations) to understand the ecological processes affecting the demography and, consequently, the genetics of this population. GHLT populations in the western region may represent an important gene pool for this species -particularly in future scenarios of climate change [Meyer et al, 2014] -but this should be investigated further.…”

Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil

“…carambolae . Because models are calibrated based on the relationship between occurrence records and climate in the study area, projecting it onto other regions with non-analogous climatic conditions can be problematic, since the models are not informed about how species would respond to climatic novelty [39,40]. To assess climate novelty in the transferred regions, a Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface test (MESS) implemented in MaxEnt was performed.…”

Peer Review #1 of "Primates in peril: the significance of Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo for global primate conservation (v0.1)"

“…Climate change projections 576 suggest that Brazil`s four endemic species of Atlantic forest lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) 577 will experience major shifts and/or reductions in habitat suitability in the coming decades 578 (Meyer, Pie & Passos, 2014). Similarly, the distribution of the northern muriqui (Brachyteles 579 hypoxanthus) is expected to be reduced by more than half of its original area, with a large decline 580 in the future suitability of currently protected reserves due to climate change (Melo et al, 2016).…”