Assessing the Hazard of Deep-Seated Rock Slope Instability through the Description of Potential Failure Scenarios, Cross-Validated Using Several Remote Sensing and Monitoring Techniques

Abstract

Foreseeing the failure of important unstable volumes is a major concern in the Alps, especially due to the presence of people and infrastructures in the valleys. The use of monitoring and remote sensing techniques is aimed at detecting potential instabilities and the combination of several techniques permits the cross-validation of the detected movements. Supplemented with field mapping and structural analysis, it is possible to define possible scenarios of rupture in terms of volume, mechanisms of failure and susceptibility. A combined observation strategy was applied to the study of major instability located in the Ticinese Alps (Switzerland), Cima del Simano, where the monitoring started in 2006 with the measurement of opened cracks with extensometers. Since 2021, the monitoring has been completed by LiDAR, satellite and GB-InSAR observations and structural analysis. Here, slow but constant movements of about 7 mm/yr were detected along with rockfall activities near the Simano summit. Eight failure scenarios of various sizes ranging from 2.3 × 105 m3 to 51 × 106 m3, various mechanisms (toppling, planar, wedge and circular sliding) and various occurrence probabilities were defined based on the topography and the monitoring results and by applying a Slope Local Base Level (SLBL) algorithm. Weather acquisition campaigns by means of thermologgers were also conducted to suggest possible causes that lead to the observed movements and to suggest the evolution of the instabilities with actual and future climate changes.