Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Snowfall Conditions in Poland Based on the Snow Fraction Sensitivity Index

Abstract

This study focuses on temperature and snowfall conditions in Poland, both of which were analyzed from 1981 to 2020. A 40-year record of daily snow fraction time series values was reconstructed using a unique and global multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) product, which provided a spatially and temporally consistent reference for the assessment of meteorological conditions. The average states and trends in snow fraction and temperature were analyzed across several years, focusing on the 6-month cold season (November–April). The impact of temperature on the snow fraction pattern was assessed by introducing a snow fraction sensitivity index. To predict short-term changes in snow conditions, a proxy model was established; it incorporated historical trends in the snow fraction as well as its mean state. This study provides clear evidence that the snow fraction is principally controlled by increases in temperature. A warming climate will thus cause a decline in the snow fraction, as we observed in vast lowland areas. Given the ongoing global warming, by the 2050s, snow-dominated areas may go from covering 86% to only 30% of the country’s surface; they will be converted into transient rain–snow areas. Our results demonstrate that a decline in snow water resources has already occurred, and these resources are expected to diminish further in the near future. New insights into the sensitivity of the snow fraction to climate warming will expand our collective knowledge of the magnitude and spatial extent of snow degradation. Such widespread changes have implications for the timing and availability of soil and groundwater resources as well as the timing and likelihood of floods and droughts. Thus, these findings will provide valuable information that can inform environmental managers of the importance of changing snowfall conditions, guiding them to include this aspect in future climate adaptation strategies.