Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Flood Events Using HEC-HMS and CMIP5

Bai, Ye; Zhang, Zhenxing; Zhao, Weiguo

doi:10.1007/s11270-019-4159-0

Cited by 36 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…They utilized the HEC-HMS to model hydrologic processes and the Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM) to downscale daily precipitation, and maximum and minimum temperature. Moreover, Bai et al (2019) proposed a framework combining HEC-HMS and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to assess the impact of climate change on flood events in the Nippersink Creek watershed located in Northeastern Illinois. They found that the increase in greenhouse gas concentration under RCP 8.5 scenario can increase future precipitation.…”

Section: Hydrological Simulation and Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical assessment of climate change impact on the hydrological regime of a small Mediterranean river, Lesvos Island, Greece

Koutsovili

Tzoraki

Theodossiou

et al. 2021

Acta Horticulturae Et Regiotecturae

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Frequency of flash floods and droughts in the Mediterranean climate zone is expected to rise in the coming years due to change of its climate. The assessment of the climate change impact at a basin scale is essential for developing mitigation and adaptation plans. This study analyses the variation of the hydrologic regime of a small Mediterranean river (the Kalloni river in Lesvos Island, Greece) by the examination of possible future climate change scenarios. The hydrologic response of the basin was simulated based on Hydrologic Modeling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS). Weather Generator version 6 from the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS-WG 6.0) was utilized to forecast climate data from 2021 to 2080. These forecasted climate data were then assigned as weather inputs to HEC-HMS to downscale the climate predictions of five large-scale general circulation models (GCMs) for three possible emission scenarios (such as RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The alteration of the Kalloni hydrologic regime is evaluated by comparing GCMs based estimates of future streamflow and evapotranspiration with business as usual (BaU) scenario. Variation was noted in seasonal and in annual scale forecasting of long-term average discharges, which show increasing trend in autumn and decreasing in summer and there is observed a general upward trend of actual evapotranspiration losses.

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Section: Hydrological Simulation and Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical assessment of climate change impact on the hydrological regime of a small Mediterranean river, Lesvos Island, Greece

Koutsovili

Tzoraki

Theodossiou

et al. 2021

Acta Horticulturae Et Regiotecturae

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“…Commonly, flood studies are developed by adopting a single hydrological model, with hyetographs the solely input modified to obtain the flows associated with each return period [36][37][38][39]. In rare cases, a variation of the runoff coefficient or the Curve Number of the SCS method is also considered in the model for the different return periods.…”

Section: Hydrological Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Hazards in Flat Coastal Areas of the Eastern Iberian Peninsula: A Case Study in Oliva (Valencia, Spain)

Eguibar

Porta-García

Echarri

et al. 2021

Water

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Enhancing resilience against flooding events is of great importance. Eastern Iberian Peninsula coastal areas are well known for high intensity rainfalls known as DANA or “cold drop”. Extreme records in 24 hours can exceed the annual average of the historical series. This phenomenon occurs normally in autumn due to convective storms generated by the existence of cold air in the upper layers of the atmosphere combined with warm winds coming from the Mediterranean Sea. In many coastal areas of the Eastern Iberian Peninsula, their flat topography, sometimes of a marsh nature, and the natural (e.g., dune ridges) and man-made (e.g., infrastructures) factors, result in devastating flooding events of great potential damage and risk for urban and rural areas. In this context, this paper presents the case study of the town of Oliva (Valencia, Spain) and how in a flooding event the flow tends to spread and accumulate along the flat coastal strip of this populated area, causing great potential damage. From that point, the paper discusses the particular issues that flood studies should consider in such flat and heavy rainy areas in terms of the hydrological and hydraulic models to be conducted to serve as the key tool of a correct risk assessment. This includes the correct statistical simulation of rainfalls, the hydrological model dependency on the return period and the correct geometry definition of all possible water barriers. An analysis of the disturbance that climatic change effects may introduce in future flooding events is also performed.

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“…As physical modelling is one of the most reliable and accepted methods for studying flood hazard [47]. Several hydrological simulating software and models, such as SWAT, HEC-HMS, and HEC-RAS, were used to understand the flood probability [27,47,48]. Minh et al [49] have stated that such kinds of hydrological models are very useful to predict the flood frequency where long term records of hydrological data are not available.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential flood frequency analysis and susceptibility mapping using CMIP5 of MIROC5 and HEC-RAS model: a case study of lower Dwarkeswar River, Eastern India

Malik

Pal

2021

SN Appl. Sci.

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Floods are one of the major concerns in the world today. The lower reaches of the river coming from the western side of West Bengal are often affected by floods. Thereby estimation and prediction of flood susceptibility in the light of climate change have become an urgent need for flood mitigation and is also the objective of this study. The historical floods (1978–2018) of the monsoon-dominated lower Dwarkeswar River, as well as the possibility of future floods (2020–2075), were investigated applying peak flow daily data. The possibilities of future flow and floods were estimated using rainfall data from MIROC5 of CMIP5 Global Circulation Model (GCM). Besides, four extreme value distribution functions like log-normal (LN), Log-Pearson Type III (LPT-3), Gumbel’s extreme value distribution (EV-I) and extreme value distribution-III (EV-III) were applied with different recurrence interval periods to estimate its probability of occurrences. The flood susceptibility maps were analyzed in HEC-RAS Rain-on-grid model and validated with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The result shows that Log-Pearson-Type-III can be very helpful to deal with flood frequency analysis with minimum value in Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S = 0.11676), Anderson–Darling (A–D = 0.55361) and Chi-squared test (0.909) and highest peak discharge 101.9, 844.9, 1322.5, 1946.2, 2387.9 and 2684.3 cubic metres can be observed for 1.5, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 75 years of return period. Weibull’s method of flood susceptibility mapping is more helpful for assessing the vulnerable areas with the highest area under curve value of 0.885. All the applied models of flood susceptibility, as well as the GCM model, are showing an increasing tendency of annual peak discharge and flood vulnerability. Therefore, this study can assist the planners to take the necessary preventive measures to combat floods.

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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Flood Events Using HEC-HMS and CMIP5

Cited by 36 publications

References 26 publications

Numerical assessment of climate change impact on the hydrological regime of a small Mediterranean river, Lesvos Island, Greece

Numerical assessment of climate change impact on the hydrological regime of a small Mediterranean river, Lesvos Island, Greece

Flood Hazards in Flat Coastal Areas of the Eastern Iberian Peninsula: A Case Study in Oliva (Valencia, Spain)

Potential flood frequency analysis and susceptibility mapping using CMIP5 of MIROC5 and HEC-RAS model: a case study of lower Dwarkeswar River, Eastern India

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