Assessing the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with a novel economic uncertainty index

Muğaloğlu, Erhan; Polat, Ali Yavuz; Tekin, Hasan; Kılıç, Edanur

doi:10.1108/jes-02-2021-0081

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Previous literature shows that world economies have been largely hit by COVID‐19 outbreak irrespective of developed or developing countries (Alhassan et al, 2020 ; Alhassan et al, 2021 ; Alola & Victor, 2020 ; Balsalobre‐Lorente et al, 2020 ; Del Chiappa et al, 2021 ; Fernandes, 2020 ; Gupta et al, 2020 ; Harris & Moss, 2020 ; Jones & Comfort, 2020a , 2020b ; Liu et al, 2021 ; Shapoval et al, 2021 ; Singh & Neog, 2020 ; Usman et al, 2020 ). Researchers have analyzed the macroeconomic effect of the pandemic on counties, Mugaloglu et al ( 2021 ) revealed that COVID‐19 created huge uncertainty in Turkey thus reduced the investment expenditure significantly. Similarly, South Africa is on the verge of falling into debt trap as the pandemic has increased the cost of public finance in the country (Alhassan et al, 2021 ; Tseng, 2021 ).…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The economic and social impact ofCOVID‐19 on tourism and hospitality industry: A case study from Oman

Al-Mughairi¹,

Bhaskar

Alazri³

2021

Journal of Public Affairs

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The COVID‐19 pandemic has incurred a substantial economic and social impact around the world. Many sectors have been drastically affected but the tourism and hospitality industry was one of the hardest hit by the COVID‐19 outbreak globally. The coronavirus pandemic has caused direct losses of half‐billion Omani Rial to the tourism sector. This pandemic has also exacerbated the mental health of business owners of the tourism and hospitality industry in Oman. This research aims to investigate the economic and social impacts of COVID‐19 on the tourism and hospitality sector of Oman. The data was collected from business owners of micro, small, medium, and large size‐companies operating in the tourism and hospitality industry. A structured questionnaire was distributed and data collection was done from September 2020 to January 2021. The finding of the study reveals a negative economic and social impact on the tourism and hospitality industry of Oman due to the COVID‐19 outbreak. The economic impact includes financial loss, reduction in customer demand at a national and international level, disruptions in the logistics and distribution channels, ruined the relationship with suppliers, customers, and employees. The social impact included depression, irritation, anxiety, and stress among the business owners about the present and future conditions. This study has given valuable suggestion to mitigate the negative economic and social impact on the tourism and hospitality industry of Oman. The finding of the study will support the government to boost the tourism and hospitality industry in Oman.

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Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The economic and social impact ofCOVID‐19 on tourism and hospitality industry: A case study from Oman

Al-Mughairi¹,

Bhaskar

Alazri³

2021

Journal of Public Affairs

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“…While the results show that increasing uncertainty has a negative effect on economic growth, consumption and investments, it is determined that the most intense negative effect is on investments. In a recent study, Mugaloglu et al (2021) create an economic uncertainty index for the 2011-2020 period by using basic macroeconomic indicators through principal component analysis. In the study, the effect of the uncertainty shock experienced during the Covid-19 period on economic activities is investigated through a SVAR model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy: A Svar Analysis for Turkey

Şiklar¹,

Şiklar²

2022

IJEBMR

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It is known that periods of high uncertainty in a country have significant effects on economic activities. Therefore, monetary policymakers should consider the degree of uncertainty in the decision-making process. In Turkey, changing the form of government from the parliamentary system to a presidential system in 2018, combined with the global Covid pandemic that started in 2020, caused an extraordinary increase in uncertainty and became one of the main sources of economic problems in the country. This study quantifies the effects of uncertainty on the Turkish economy through an SVAR model estimated with Bayesian techniques. The results show that high uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on economic activities, mainly with the decrease in consumption and investment expenditures. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey reacts to these developments with an expansionary monetary policy that injects liquidity into the economy. However, it should not be overlooked that such a policy has limitations due to its long-term negative effects.

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“…Delayed or lower investment and a higher cost of raising capital affect economic activities significantly (Cesa-Bianchi et al, 2020). Similarly, Mugaloglu et al (2021) examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activities in Turkey and find a significant decline in economic activity in general and industrial production in particular due to the pandemic uncertainty. Besides, COVID-19 could temporarily lock resources in unproductive sectors to contain the pandemic.…”

Section: Economic Performance and Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of COVID-19 on trade, production, environmental quality and its implications for green economy

Borojo

Jiang

Miao

2021

JES

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PurposeThis study examines the effects of COVID-19 on trade, production and environmental quality and provides policy implications on green recovery.Design/methodology/approachThe two-step Heckman method is applied to estimate the structural gravity specification of trade. Besides, the two-step system GMM model is used to estimate the effects of COVID-19 on production and environmental quality. Additionally, descriptive analysis and literature review have been used.FindingsThe findings disclose that COVID-19 adversely affected the trade performance of the countries. The results further imply that the regional trade agreements (RTAs) can play a key mediating role in the post-COVID-19 trade recovery. Besides, the impact of COVID-19 on the output is substantially negative. However, the effect of COVID-19 on environmental quality is significantly positive.Originality/valueIt is the first study of its kind to examine the effects of COVID-19 on trade, production and CO2 emissions covering panel countries. Second, it provides a detailed analysis of firms planning to engage in the export sector. Moreover, it offers policy suggestions to consider environmental quality and green recovery. Besides, it examines the mediating role of RTAs in the relationship between trade and the pandemic.

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Assessing the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with a novel economic uncertainty index

Cited by 16 publications

References 30 publications

The economic and social impact ofCOVID‐19 on tourism and hospitality industry: A case study from Oman

The economic and social impact ofCOVID‐19 on tourism and hospitality industry: A case study from Oman

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy: A Svar Analysis for Turkey

The effects of COVID-19 on trade, production, environmental quality and its implications for green economy

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