Assessing the impact of future land-use changes on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada

Wijesekara, Gayan Nishad; Gupta, Anil; Valeo, Caterina; Hasbani, Jean-Gabriel; Qiao, Ying; Delaney, Patrick; Marceau, Danielle J.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.018

Cited by 169 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Several other studies have employed scenario modeling, whereby hydrologic models are parameterized to represent different possible future land use conditions (e.g., Niu and Sivakumar, 2013;Elfert and Borman, 2010). A related approach involves combining land use change forecast models with hydrologic models (e.g., Wijesekara et al, 2012). However, the aforementioned approaches are unsuited to hydrologic forecasting in changing catchments, as the predicted land use change may not reflect actual changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

Pathiraja

Anghileri

Burlando

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a mediumsized catchment (2880 km 2 ) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a timevarying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

Pathiraja

Anghileri

Burlando

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Changes in the hydrology of mountainous regions due to, for example, climate change, will have major implications for many major rivers that they sustain [1]. Physically-based, distributed hydrological models have been applied to investigate the impacts of climate and land use change and management practices on water quantity and quality [2][3][4][5]. The reliability of this approach depends on the accurate representation of physical processes in the hydrological model setup [6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Spatial Climatic Representation on Hydrological Model Calibration and Prediction Uncertainty: A Mountainous Catchment of Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

Thompson

2016

Water

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Sparse climatic observations represent a major challenge for hydrological modeling of mountain catchments with implications for decision-making in water resources management. Employing elevation bands in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SWAT2012-SUFI2) model enabled representation of precipitation and temperature variation with altitude in the Daning river catchment (Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China) where meteorological inputs are limited in spatial extent and are derived from observations from relatively low lying locations. Inclusion of elevation bands produced better model performance for 1987-1993 with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) increasing by at least 0.11 prior to calibration. During calibration prediction uncertainty was greatly reduced. With similar R-factors from the earlier calibration iterations, a further 11% of observations were included within the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU) compared to the model without elevation bands. For behavioral simulations defined in SWAT calibration using a NSE threshold of 0.3, an additional 3.9% of observations were within the 95PPU while the uncertainty reduced by 7.6% in the model with elevation bands. The calibrated model with elevation bands reproduced observed river discharges with the performance in the calibration period changing to "very good" from "poor" without elevation bands. The output uncertainty of calibrated model with elevation bands was satisfactory, having 85% of flow observations included within the 95PPU. These results clearly demonstrate the requirement to account for orographic effects on precipitation and temperature in hydrological models of mountainous catchments.

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“…Since LUCC has direct and indirect impact on a number of factors of ecological environment, as well as the regional and global sustainable development, the land change modelling has attracted increasing attention in the context global climate change (Li, 1996;Wijesekara et al, 2012). The continuous evolution and transformation of land surface has resulted in serious consequence to the physical system at multiple scales, and raised a number of change in the ecological processes, such as surface runoff, soil erosion and agricultural non-point source pollution (Wijesekara et al, 2012;Li et al, 2010;Ouyang et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The continuous evolution and transformation of land surface has resulted in serious consequence to the physical system at multiple scales, and raised a number of change in the ecological processes, such as surface runoff, soil erosion and agricultural non-point source pollution (Wijesekara et al, 2012;Li et al, 2010;Ouyang et al, 2010). Analysing the characteristics of the LUCC, exploring changes at different spatiotemporal scale and predicting future scenarios contribute is of significance for providing decisionmaking basis for the regional ecological protection and sustainable development.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Ca-Markov Model to Model the Spatiotemporal Change of Land Use/Cover in Fuxian Lake for Decision Support

Jin²,

Wei

et al. 2015

ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.

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ABSTRACT:Spatiotemporal modelling of land use/cover change (LUCC) has become increasingly important in recent years, especially for environmental change and regional planning. There have been many approaches and software packages for modelling LUCC, but developing a model for a specific region is still a difficult task, because it requires large volume of data input and elaborate model adjustment. Fuxian Lake watershed is one of the most important ecological protection area in China and located in southeast of Kunming city, Yunnan province. In this paper, the CA-Markov model is used to analyse the spatiotemporal LUCC and project its course into the future. Specifically, the model uses high resolution remote sensing images of 2006 and 2009 as input data, and then makes prediction for 2014. A quantitative comparison with remote sensing images of 2014 suggests an overall accuracy of 88%. This spatiotemporal modelling method is expected to facilitate the research of many land cover and use applications modelling.

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Assessing the impact of future land-use changes on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada

Cited by 169 publications

References 31 publications

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

Impacts of Spatial Climatic Representation on Hydrological Model Calibration and Prediction Uncertainty: A Mountainous Catchment of Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

Using Ca-Markov Model to Model the Spatiotemporal Change of Land Use/Cover in Fuxian Lake for Decision Support

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