Assessing the Impact of Land Conversion on Carbon Stocks and GHG Emissions

Abstract

With the recent thrust to convert forests in Ontario’s Clay Belt to agricultural land, a vital need arises to assess the attendant effects on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper examines the possible effect of land conversion on soil organic carbon and GHG emissions within a study area in Northern Ontario, Canada, during the next two decades under different land management schemes. The study established a framework to conduct simulations with the DNDC model for agricultural lands and the CBM for forested areas. The methodology involves a unique change detection method for models’ land cover and disturbance inputs. The work highlights the improvement in carbon simulation accuracy from better inputs to carbon models. Furthermore, it addresses modalities to ensure fewer uncertainties are introduced while merging data from multiple geospatial data sources. The simulations demonstrated that the carbon sequestration potential in the forests was almost double the soil organic carbon accumulation in the agricultural lands. Validations done for the estimation of carbon sequestered included comparisons of the carbon model outputs from field survey data from 2018–2021. In most sites, the carbon amounts from the computer models compared to those from the field survey, within limits of error. The average uncertainties in GHG emissions ranged from ~0.5% to 12.8%.