Assessing the impact of land use and climate change on the evergreen broad-leaved species of Quercus acuta in Japan

Nakao, Katsuhiro; Matsui, Tetsuya; Horikawa, Masahiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

doi:10.1007/s11258-010-9817-7

Cited by 27 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Previous research using the coldness index and the minimum temperature conditions predicted the expansions and shifts of future habitats for warm-adapted evergreen trees [7,12,42,[75][76][77][78]. Therefore, the climatic factors used for predictions, the coldness index and the minimum temperature, may account for the difference between our predictions and the previous ones.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…The coldness index and the mean temperature of the coldest month have been used to account for the northern and upper distributional limits of warm-adapted evergreens [7,12,[75][76][77][78]. Previous research using the coldness index and the minimum temperature conditions predicted the expansions and shifts of future habitats for warm-adapted evergreen trees [7,12,42,[75][76][77][78].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of Climate Change on the Climatic Niches of Warm-Adapted Evergreen Plants: Expansion or Contraction?

Koo

Park

Seo

2017

Forests

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Abstract:Climate change has modified the structure and functions of ecosystems, affecting human well-being. Evergreen plants in the warm-temperate ecosystems will lose climatically suitable habitats under climate change but have not drawn much scholarly interest. Therefore, the present research aimed to predict the future climatic niches of eight coastal warm-adapted evergreen trees under climate change to provide information for an effective management practice. For this purpose, we used the ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) weighted by the TSS value in modelling the climatic niches of those evergreen trees and then ensembled their future distributions predicted under 20 future climate scenarios. Except for Neolitsea sericea (True Skill Statistic (TSS) = 0.79), all projections for the current climatic niches of evergreens showed excellent predictive powers (TSS > 0.85). The results showed that the climatic niches of the four evergreens-Castanopsis cuspidata, Pittosporum tobira, Raphiolepis indica var. umbellate, and Eurya emarginata-would expand to the northern part of the Korean Peninsula (KP) under climate change, but the ones of the remaining four-Kadsura japonica, Neolitsea sericea, Ilex integra, and Dendropanax morbiferus-would shrink. While the climatic niches of Pittosporum tobira showed the rapidest and greatest expansion under climate change, Dendropanax morbiferus was predicted to experience the greatest loss of habitat. On the other hand, regardless of whether the future distributions of climatically suitable habitats would expand or contract, the highly suitable habitats of all species were predicted to decline under climate change. This may indicate that further climate change will degrade habitat suitability for all species within the distribution boundary and restrict continuous habitat expansions of expanding species or accelerate habitat loss of shrinking species. In addition, the future distributions of most coastal evergreens were found to be confined to coastal areas; therefore, sea-level rise would accelerate their habitat loss under climate change. The present study provides primary and practical knowledge for understanding climate-related coastal vegetation changes for future conservation planning, particularly on the Korean Peninsula.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 58%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climate Change on the Climatic Niches of Warm-Adapted Evergreen Plants: Expansion or Contraction?

Koo

Park

Seo

2017

Forests

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“…The southern inland area with a large area of suitable habitats showed a low suitability (0.193-0.284). Previous studies predicted that warmtemperate evergreen broadleaf plants would be positively affected by climate changes, such as the expansion of habitats (Nakao et al 2011Yun et al 2014;. However, in the case of marlberry, the loss of highly suitable habitats may offset the positive effects of climate change.…”

Section: Prediction Of Changes In Suitable Habitats Of Ardisia Japonicamentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The distributions of alpine plants have decreased under global warming (Randin et al 2009;Koo et al 2015), and warm-adapted plants expanded or shifted northwards (Nakao et al 2011Yun et al 2011Yun et al , 2014. These changes in plant distribution will cause changes in the structure and functions of forest ecosystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-related range shifts of Ardisia japonica in the Korean Peninsula: a role of dispersal capacity

et al. 2017

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Background: Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production. Results: We introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area. Conclusions: This study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

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“…Quercus comprises approximately 500 species of trees and shrubs that occupy a diverse array of habitat and climate types (Manos et al 1999). In Turkey, the total forest area is around 211,000 km 2 , of which one-third belongs to oak forest (Çolak and Rotherham 2006;Mayer 1986).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species response curves of oak species along climatic gradients in Turkey

Uğurlu

Oldeland

2011

Int J Biometeorol

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The genus Quercus is one of the most important tree species in Turkey. However, little is known on the ecological preferences of Turkish oak species regarding climate. We analyzed species response curves using a HOF-model approach to describe the general pattern of oak distributions along climatic gradients and to identify the driving climatic factors for eight oak species in Turkey. While climate data were extracted from the free available worldclim dataset, occurrence data on oak species were assembled from the literature into a vegetation database (n = 1,104). From the analyzed species response curves, only fa ew (16%) showed unimodal responses, while most were linear (31%) or exhibited a threshold response (31%). The driving factors were seasonality of temperature and seasonality of precipitation, indicating that Turkish oak species can be characterized best by the preference of climatic stability. These findings have important implications for conservation and climate change research, which usually focuses on trends of the mean values of temperature or precipitation but less often on the seasonality. In this study, we further tested whether niche optima derived from raw mean values of occurrences could replace missing model optima due to non-responsiveness of HOF models of type I. However, we did not find this to be a satisfactory solution. Finally, we discuss the need for the construction of a national database based on phytosociological relevés for Turkey.

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Assessing the impact of land use and climate change on the evergreen broad-leaved species of Quercus acuta in Japan

Cited by 27 publications

References 37 publications

Effects of Climate Change on the Climatic Niches of Warm-Adapted Evergreen Plants: Expansion or Contraction?

Effects of Climate Change on the Climatic Niches of Warm-Adapted Evergreen Plants: Expansion or Contraction?

Climate-related range shifts of Ardisia japonica in the Korean Peninsula: a role of dispersal capacity

Species response curves of oak species along climatic gradients in Turkey

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