Abstract:Background and aims: Retail alcohol outlets appear to open in neighborhoods with low land and structure rents near sources of demand; they may 'agglomerate', open near to one another or 'churn', replace one another, over time. We used the turnover in numbers of outlets over time to measure agglomeration and churning and the impacts of openings and closings of outlets on neighborhood crime.
“…And, fourth, a tight focus on temporal sequencing of relationships between outlet numbers, densities and crime remains essential for the development of causal models. Reverse causation is particularly problematic since outlets more frequently open in lower‐income minority neighbourhoods where crime reports are more likely [20, 54]. Despite these limitations, the current study adds to causal arguments related to outlet effects by identifying specific days and times during which outlet effects are most in play for DUI and assault crime incidents.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…These limits on data and methods encourage scepticism about all but a few well‐replicated observations in the literature: Relationships of bars, pubs or taverns to interpersonal violence and impaired driving are relatively well‐established [10, 13–15], but relationships of off‐premise outlets to neighbourhood problems are not [16–18]. In the case of interpersonal violence, spatial panel data have enabled the examination of the multiple spatial scales at which bars and pubs are related to violent crime [19] and assessments of the impacts of openings and closings of outlets on subsequent violent crime rates [20].…”
Introduction: Causal relationships between alcohol outlets and crime are inferred from their statistical associations across neighbourhoods. However, many unobserved covariates may confound these effects. Recognising that outlet sales vary by time of day and day of week, we assess whether areas with more bars/pubs, restaurants or offpremise outlets have more crime during days and times when alcohol sales are greatest.Methods: Annual administrative crime counts, sociodemographic data and other area characteristics of 336 Census block groups in Oakland, California, USA, were related to outlet densities from 2000 to 2015. Bayesian space-time Poisson models were used to measure associations between outlet densities and crime during: (i) weekday daytime; (ii) weekday nighttime; (iii) weekend daytime; and (iv) weekend nighttime periods (four seemingly unrelated equations). Comparisons of parameter estimates across equations provided an assessment of outlet effects on crime across days and times within the same analysis units using the same constellation of confounding covariates.Results: Assault and driving under the influence crime incidents during weekend evening hours were more frequent in Census block group areas with greater numbers of bar/pubs. Burglaries were consistently greater in areas with greater densities of restaurants. Discussion and Conclusions: The spatiotemporal signature relating densities of bars/pubs over weekend evening hours to assault and driving under the influence incidents suggests that these outlets are a critical source of these crimes across neighbourhoods. Prevention programs and policies that focus upon specific drinking establishments, days and times may be most effective in reducing assault and impaired driving incidents in neighbourhoods. K E Y W O R D S alcohol outlet, alcoholic beverage, crime, policy Key Points • Crimes ostensibly related to alcohol outlets vary by neighbourhood location, time-of-day and day-of-week.
“…And, fourth, a tight focus on temporal sequencing of relationships between outlet numbers, densities and crime remains essential for the development of causal models. Reverse causation is particularly problematic since outlets more frequently open in lower‐income minority neighbourhoods where crime reports are more likely [20, 54]. Despite these limitations, the current study adds to causal arguments related to outlet effects by identifying specific days and times during which outlet effects are most in play for DUI and assault crime incidents.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…These limits on data and methods encourage scepticism about all but a few well‐replicated observations in the literature: Relationships of bars, pubs or taverns to interpersonal violence and impaired driving are relatively well‐established [10, 13–15], but relationships of off‐premise outlets to neighbourhood problems are not [16–18]. In the case of interpersonal violence, spatial panel data have enabled the examination of the multiple spatial scales at which bars and pubs are related to violent crime [19] and assessments of the impacts of openings and closings of outlets on subsequent violent crime rates [20].…”
Introduction: Causal relationships between alcohol outlets and crime are inferred from their statistical associations across neighbourhoods. However, many unobserved covariates may confound these effects. Recognising that outlet sales vary by time of day and day of week, we assess whether areas with more bars/pubs, restaurants or offpremise outlets have more crime during days and times when alcohol sales are greatest.Methods: Annual administrative crime counts, sociodemographic data and other area characteristics of 336 Census block groups in Oakland, California, USA, were related to outlet densities from 2000 to 2015. Bayesian space-time Poisson models were used to measure associations between outlet densities and crime during: (i) weekday daytime; (ii) weekday nighttime; (iii) weekend daytime; and (iv) weekend nighttime periods (four seemingly unrelated equations). Comparisons of parameter estimates across equations provided an assessment of outlet effects on crime across days and times within the same analysis units using the same constellation of confounding covariates.Results: Assault and driving under the influence crime incidents during weekend evening hours were more frequent in Census block group areas with greater numbers of bar/pubs. Burglaries were consistently greater in areas with greater densities of restaurants. Discussion and Conclusions: The spatiotemporal signature relating densities of bars/pubs over weekend evening hours to assault and driving under the influence incidents suggests that these outlets are a critical source of these crimes across neighbourhoods. Prevention programs and policies that focus upon specific drinking establishments, days and times may be most effective in reducing assault and impaired driving incidents in neighbourhoods. K E Y W O R D S alcohol outlet, alcoholic beverage, crime, policy Key Points • Crimes ostensibly related to alcohol outlets vary by neighbourhood location, time-of-day and day-of-week.
“…Importantly, however, increases in outlet densities have been associated with increases in crimes in longitudinal studies, suggesting these associations are not entirely the result of outlets selectively locating in high crime areas [32, 33]. In a recent study, for example, it was estimated that each bar/pub opening within a neighbourhood was associated with a 3.5% increase in assaults and a 6.9% increase in robberies, after covarying for neighbourhood characteristics and overall outlet densities [34].…”
IntroductionWe investigated whether greater concentrations of on‐ and off‐sale alcohol outlets were associated with crime and whether this association was moderated by COVID‐19 shelter‐in‐place orders (SIP) that restricted on‐premises consumption of alcohol.MethodsCrimes (2019–2020) and addresses of licenced alcohol outlets in a medium‐sized California city were geocoded within census block groups (N = 61). On‐ and off‐sale alcohol outlet density was calculated as licenced outlets/2.59 km2 (1 square mile). Multilevel negative binomial regression analyses were conducted to examine associations between alcohol outlet density and crime, and possible moderating effects of SIP, controlling for block group demographic characteristics and density of other retail businesses.ResultsOn‐sale outlet density was positively associated with total crimes and Part 2 crimes, while off‐sale outlet density was inversely associated with total crime and Part 2 crimes. Overall, SIP was not significantly associated with crime, but moderated the associations of on‐sale density with total crime and Part 1 crimes such that reductions in crime during SIP were observed in higher density areas. The association of off‐sale outlets with crime was not moderated by SIP policies.Discussion and ConclusionOn‐sale outlet density, but not off‐sale density, appears to be associated with increased crime. The results further indicate that restrictions in hours and service imposed by SIP policies reduced crime in high on‐sale outlet density areas. These findings reinforce the importance of regulating alcohol outlet density and hours of service, especially for on‐sale outlets, as a crime reduction strategy.
“…Gruenewald et al . [1] skillfully address this empirical gap. Using organic turnover in California's retail alcohol market, the authors create conditions akin to a natural experiment and control substantially for other environmental conditions that could confound the observed associations.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“… Gruenewald et al ’s [ 1 ] contribution is a notable advance for studies of the public health impacts of retail alcohol outlets. This commentary considers the work in the context of regulatory efforts to limit outlet concentrations .…”
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