Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Distribution of Major Non-Timber Forest Plants in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

Abstract

For many decades, non-timber forest products (NTFPs) have been an important livelihood commodity in Nepal as a traditional source of food, fiber, and medicines. However, the importance of NTFPs have been recognized only recently. NTFPs form more than 5% of Nepal’s national gross domestic product and are facing threat due to anthropogenic drivers and changing climate. Understanding of the current distribution and future dynamics of NTFPs is essential for effective conservation planning and management. In the maiden attempt, we used the Maxent model to understand the current and predict the future distribution by 2050 of 10 major NTFPs in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal. The prediction accuracy of the models calculated based on the area under curve was high (>90%) and the prediction by 2050 highlights potential increase in distribution range of seven NTFPs and potential decrease in that of three NTFPs in the study area. The results from our study could play an important role in planning and management of these NTFPs considering their high economic and ecological significance and sensitivity to predicted climate change.

Ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya

“…hatagirea . This finding is equally supported by the results of other workers [ 88 – 90 ] who also modelled the dominant role of temperature related climatic variables in governing the distribution of medicinal plants in the north western Himalaya. Variability of precipitation pattern also acts as a significant parameter that influences the species distribution in the Himalaya [ 91 ].…”

The Human Impact on Changes in the Forest Range of the Silesian Beskids (Western Carpathians)

“…Similarly, in the forests of North America, climate change may make the future spatial distribution of tree species substantially different from the current distribution [15,97]. Analyses modelling short-and long-term forest changes associated with alternative climate scenarios indicate changes in forest ecosystems in North America [98] and Asia [99][100][101]. As pointed out by Frelich and Reich [102], the warming climate will have major effects on boreal and northern hardwood forests situated near the prairie-forest border of central North America within the next 50-100 years.…”

Contributions of non-timber forest products to people in mountain ecosystems and impacts of recent climate change

“…Among the different categories of NTFPs, MAPs have received more focus as they are the most traded NTFPs in Nepal, while the contribution of other categories of NTFPs has been largely overlooked (Uprety et al 2016). Research to date has focused primarily on quantifying the goods and services provided by mountain forests (Lamsal et al 2018b) and only a few studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on NTFPs, likely due to inadequate climatic and historical bioclimatic data (Chitale et al 2018). For example, the provision of NTFPs was found to decrease with an increase in temperature and heavy rainfall in Abia state, Nigeria (Ibe 2018).…”

“…The availability of NTFPs was reduced by climate-induced landslides in Balakot, Pakistan (Shahzad et al 2019). Climate change has adversely influenced the life-cycles and the distribution of valuable medicinal plants in Central Himalaya, India (Maikhuri et al 2018), and is predicted to shift the range of some major NTFP species in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape of Nepal (Chitale et al 2018). However, local traditional knowledge of climate change and its impacts have not been widely addressed (Dangi et al 2018) and the impacts of climate change on NTFPs in mountain communities are not comprehensively understood.…”