Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach

Teotónio, Carla; Fortes, Patrícia; Roebeling, Peter; Guillén, Jorge; Robaina, Margarita

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.002

Cited by 78 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…In addition to these generation potential studies, there are several studies that also include the potential impact on the electricity market (i.e., for the EU [4,22], the U.S. [13,26,27], the Iberian Peninsula [28,29], Norway [30], and Austria and Germany [31]). Boehlert et al [26] combine a monthly water resources systems model with an electric sector planning model to analyze the impact of climate change on U.S. hydropower generation.…”

Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They find decreases in hydropower generation and increases in thermal generation from coal and CCGT, combined with a significant demand shift from winter to summer. In a detailed analysis for Portugal, Teotónio et al [28], combining the TIMES_PT model with climate model results under different RCP scenarios, show that hydropower is highly vulnerable to climate change. As expected, decreases in water availability lead to decreases in electrical hydropower generation between 17% and 41%, leading to increases in Portuguese electricity prices of up to 17%.…”

Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Hydropower represents an important pillar of electricity systems in many countries. It not only plays an important role in mitigating climate change, but is also subject to climate-change impacts. In this paper, we use the Swiss electricity market model Swissmod to study the effects of changes in water availability due to climate change on Swiss hydropower. Swissmod is an electricity dispatch model with a plant-level representation of 96% of Swiss hydropower plants and their interrelations within cascade structures. Using this detailed model in combination with spatially disaggregated climate-change runoff projections for Switzerland, we show that climate change has ambiguous impacts on hydropower and on the overall electricity system. Electricity prices and overall system costs increase under dry conditions and decrease under average or wet conditions. While the change of seasonal patterns, with a shift to higher winter runoff, has positive impacts, the overall yearly inflow varies under hydrological conditions. While average and wet years yield an increase in inflows and revenues, dry years become drier, resulting in the opposite effect. Even though different in magnitude, the direction of impacts persists when applying the same changes in inflows to the 2050 electricity system.

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Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change and Water Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

et al. 2018

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“…Hydropower production takes place in 184 hydropower plants, considering both large (≥10 MW) and small plants (<10 MW) [34]. Portugal mainland's most important river basins are: Lima, Cávado, Mondego, Tejo, Guadiana, and, particularly, Douro, which is responsible for more than half of the hydropower generated in the country [3].…”

Section: Hydropowermentioning

confidence: 99%

An Overview of the Portuguese Energy Sector and Perspectives for Power-to-Gas Implementation

2018

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Energy policies established in 2005 have made Portugal one of the top renewable power producers in Europe, in relative terms. Indeed, the country energy dependence decreased since 2005, although remaining above EU-19 and EU-28 countries in 2015 (77.4% vs. 62.4% vs. 54.0%, respectively). Data collected from governmental, statistical, and companies’ reports and research articles shows that renewables and natural gas assumed a growing importance in the Portuguese energy mix along time, while oil followed an opposite trend. Recently, the country remarkably achieved a full 70-h period in which the mainland power consumed relied exclusively on renewable electricity and has several moments where power production exceeds demand. Currently, the main option for storing those surpluses relies on pumped hydro storage plants or exportation, while other storage alternatives, like Power-to-Gas (PtG), are not under deep debate, eventually due to a lack of information and awareness. Hence, this work aims to provide an overview of the Portuguese energy sector in the 2005–2015 decade, highlighting the country’s effort towards renewable energy deployment that, together with geographic advantages, upholds PtG as a promising alternative for storing the country’s renewable electricity surpluses.

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“…In addition, the estimates of global hydropower potential are convenient for producers [13], therefore, hydropower production continues to expand [14]. Given these and the predicted impacts of climate change, it is expected that the artificial flow fluctuations will be particularly severe for Iberian rivers affected by a Mediterranean climate [15], especially in the summer when water is scarce and the flow downstream is low, even if an ecological flow is provided by the HPP.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Habitat Enhancement Solutions for Iberian Cyprinids Affected by Hydropeaking: Insights from Flume Research

2019

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Due to peak electricity demand, hydropeaking introduces rapid and artificial flow fluctuations in the receiving river, which alters the river hydromorphology, while affecting the downstream ecological integrity. The impacts of hydropeaking have been addressed in flumes and in rivers. However, few studies propose mitigation solutions based on fish responses. The objective of this communication was to assemble the methods and outputs of flume research focused on Iberian cyprinids and to present recommendations to be used by freshwater scientists and hydropower producers. Emphasis was given to the critical role of integrating ecology and hydraulics to find the causal pathway between a flow change and a measurable fish response. The use of diverse behaviour quantification methods, flow sensing technologies, and statistical tools were decisive to strengthen the validity of the findings and to identify fish-fluid relationships, according to flow events. This communication encourages further research to identify flow thresholds for key life-cycle stages and complementary river studies to design and assess mitigation solutions for hydropeaking. Although the research focused on an Iberian cyprinid, the methods suggested have the potential to be extended to other fish species affected by hydropeaking.

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Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach

Cited by 78 publications

References 63 publications

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

An Overview of the Portuguese Energy Sector and Perspectives for Power-to-Gas Implementation

Habitat Enhancement Solutions for Iberian Cyprinids Affected by Hydropeaking: Insights from Flume Research

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